0:00 What do you think is the play of the
0:01 Russians? Why why would they be willing
0:03 to do this and to to be a participant in
0:06 this if there's no utility in it?
0:08 >> The Russians see value in keeping open
0:10 the the lines of communication and they
0:13 want to be in a position where they are
0:15 never accused of having refused to talk.
0:18 They're open to talk. They'll listen.
0:21 Now what comes out of it, they expect
0:23 nothing because that's been their
0:25 experience thus far.
0:26 But they will always show up. They'll be
0:29 polite. They will listen.
0:31 And if we're willing to listen, which is
0:33 rarely the case, they'll tell you what
0:35 they can and cannot do.
0:37 But we normally don't pay much attention
0:39 to that. We have this view that if we
0:41 show up, they should be grateful and
0:42 sign up for whatever we want.
0:45 Doesn't work that way.
0:47 >> And and let's take a look and see how it
0:49 does work. What what is actually working
0:51 on the ground because it it appears that
0:52 Russia has moved down along a path and
0:57 John Mearsheimer who by the way will be
0:59 on the show later this afternoon.
1:01 He says he he doesn't think there's any
1:03 prospect for diplomatic outcome at all.
1:06 He said that he's just convinced this
1:08 will eventually definitely work its way
1:10 out on the battlefield. He said that's
1:11 just going to be the way it's going to
1:12 play out. But I I wonder your view from
1:15 a military perspective, does Russia have
1:17 the capacity to win on the battlefield
1:20 and how might that look going forward?
1:23 >> Well, yes. I mean there's no question
1:25 about that and you can look at the
1:27 enormous amount of firepower that has
1:29 been assembled and thrown at the
1:30 Ukrainians over the last several weeks.
1:33 Ukraine is is basically in ruins and the
1:36 population there is miserable and
1:39 furious and angry with the government in
1:43 Our friend Zelensky and his friend and
1:44 his buddies all survive because they
1:46 have MI6 and CIA surrounding them and
1:50 They have thousands of mercenaries have
1:52 been brought in the country to try and
1:53 help compensate for the problems with
1:56 But this is a dying regime. There's no
2:00 The issue Russians is the one that we
2:02 discussed a few weeks ago.
2:05 When this ends, when this war is over,
2:07 certain things will have to be
2:09 acknowledged. Number one, Odessa will
2:13 There's no question about that. They're
2:14 not going to allow the port of Odessa to
2:16 go back into Ukrainian hands and become
2:21 sore in the side of Russia, bringing in
2:26 illegal trafficking of women and
2:28 children, and God knows what else, all
2:30 to fuel this state that is permanently
2:34 So they're going to cross the
2:36 Dnieper at some point and they'll have
2:38 to and take Odessa from the land.
2:40 Odessa is cut off now. That's not going
2:43 And then I think they'll extend that
2:45 boundary all the way to Moldova and
2:48 And why wouldn't they? I mean, this is
2:50 how you reduce the rump state to a rump
2:53 Now, what do you do with Kiev? Well, as
2:56 long as MI6 and CIA receive the funds
2:59 and have the funds to sustain the
3:02 I think they'll tolerate it and then at
3:04 some point they'll make the decision to
3:06 cross up near Kiev and take that place.
3:10 I you know, I I don't see any
3:12 alternatives to this because you're not
3:14 going to end this war any other way.
3:17 And I think they know that the attitude
3:19 and the mindset in Western Ukraine,
3:21 which is hostile to them,
3:23 has changed quite a bit. It's not a
3:24 question of no longer hating Russians as
3:27 much as it is a recognition that if they
3:29 don't end this war, they're all going to
3:31 starve or freeze to death if not be
3:34 So I think it's come to that point
3:37 There is enormous pressure. I'm sure you
3:44 >> Yeah, yeah, Stanislav Kabrievnik, yeah.
3:46 >> Yeah, and Stanislav told you what's
3:48 happening on the ground and he's right.
3:51 The Russians have reached the point now.
3:53 They have the forces, they have the
3:54 manpower. They can do what they need to
3:56 do. No one is talking about what is up
3:58 in Belarus. There's plenty of force and
4:01 power up there as well.
4:03 And in the meantime, Europe is
4:05 approaching entropy.
4:06 Does anybody really think the French or
4:08 the British are going to send anybody to
4:09 fight in Western Ukraine? Forget it.
4:13 These These governments are on their
4:14 last legs. Maats, everybody wants to get
4:17 rid of maats. We're working tirelessly.
4:20 That is our intelligence agencies with
4:22 the current German government to keep
4:24 the alternative for Germany out of
4:27 We are working everywhere inside of
4:29 Europe to help suppress nationalists in
4:32 favor of the globalists who are in
4:36 And it's very funny that that's never
4:37 mentioned publicly. Instead, you have
4:40 globalists in Berlin, Paris, and London
4:42 say, well, those evil Russians, they're
4:44 on the ground and they're influencing
4:47 Listen, the Russians do many things
4:49 well, but as far as influencing things
4:51 from the ground in Poland and Germany,
4:54 They're I'm sorry, they're just not very
4:56 competent at that. So,
4:59 [clears throat] you know, the answer to
5:00 your question is, yeah, they can do it
5:02 all. There's no question about it. In
5:03 fact, the the Russian electric wants to
5:06 do it. They want this to end.
5:08 And the pressure on President Putin, I
5:10 think is just enormous.
5:12 At some point, he's going to relent, I
5:14 think, and and do it. But he has wisely,
5:17 at least to this point,
5:19 exercised restraint. It's paid off for
5:21 him. Things have moved in Russia's
5:24 But how many times do you have to put up
5:27 storm shadow missile or some UAV from
5:30 Western Europe that is launched by the
5:32 Ukrainians into Russia that kills
5:36 It's not just damaging a refinery here
5:38 or there. Those things can be repaired.
5:40 Large refineries are are very robust
5:44 entities, by the way. So,
5:46 you're not going to put it out of
5:47 business that easily. But it's an
5:49 irritant. It's a strategic irritant.
5:51 It's embarrassing and it's frustrating
5:53 and it angers the hell out of the
5:54 population. And with good reason. I
5:57 mean, if they started hitting us
5:59 anywhere between Houston and Jersey
6:02 City, we'd be damn upset as well.
6:05 But uh you know, thus far he's he's held
6:08 back. I don't know how much longer he
6:12 >> Uh, you know, I would also like to take
6:14 kind of a a bigger picture look. We we
6:16 oftentimes talk about, you know, what's
6:17 happening on the ground right now. We've
6:19 we've done this tactical update with
6:21 Stanislav Kirpivnik a couple of days
6:22 ago. You know, the the snapshot of
6:24 here's where it is right now. I want to
6:26 take a look at the bigger picture
6:27 because I think that gives a bigger
6:28 indication of where things could go
6:30 next. And I don't think enough people
6:33 who are for Ukraine recognize the
6:35 military futility, if not the
6:37 impossibility of what the position is.
6:40 Let let's look first of all, this is the
6:41 current situation in terms of what is
6:44 owned uh by the Russian side. The
6:46 Luhansk Oblast is uh effectively 98.5.
6:49 Russians claim it's completely in their
6:51 favor, but apparently there's a couple
6:53 of small areas, whatever, doesn't
6:54 matter. Nearly all of it. The Donetsk
6:56 79%, Zaporizhzhia 74%, Kherson 69 and
7:01 then even Kharkiv and Sumy and
7:03 Dnipropetrovsk, they actually have some
7:05 of each of those as well. So they've got
7:07 a lot of it. It's not even just the four
7:08 oblast anymore. They've been making more
7:12 advances here in this year across the
7:15 board. But I want to take a look at even
7:19 let's see, I think November 3rd of 2022.
7:22 It says 2023 there. It's actually 2022.
7:25 No, no, it is 2023. At the end of the
7:27 Ukraine counteroffensive where they
7:30 launched their big offensive uh and they
7:32 tried to push Russia out etc. It was a
7:34 fool's errand as as you and I talked
7:36 about at the time and it played out that
7:37 way. From that time, Russia though then
7:40 at the end of that period went back on
7:41 the offensive. From November 1st until
7:44 today, they have been on the offensive.
7:46 It when you look at all of the uh the
7:49 net net, so Ukraine has tried several
7:51 counterattacks. Uh they had that attack
7:55 the Dnipro River in Krinky. They had the
7:58 attack into Kursk province inside Russia
8:00 proper etc. Uh and then when you see all
8:03 of the stuff that Russia has taken and
8:05 the Ukraine has taken the net net, this
8:06 is what you come up with. Russian
8:08 advances inside Ukraine between those
8:10 dates, between November 1st and today,
8:12 of approximately 3,500 to 4,200 square
8:16 kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
8:17 Russia claims it's 6,000, but
8:20 independent folks say somewhere around.
8:22 Not that that's a small number anyway.
8:24 Uh, primary drivers are heavy grinding
8:26 attrition warfare tactics featuring
8:28 glide bomb attacks, uh, artillery
8:30 barrages and saturating FPV drone
8:32 assaults across eastern Donetsk. Um, and
8:35 then when you take a look at that, you
8:36 see you know, the Russians gained this
8:38 much territory. Ukraine gained some of
8:40 these that 4 to 600 in those years, 4 to
8:43 600 square kilometers, which they then
8:46 lost nearly all of. Everything that they
8:48 have every time they make an attack, it
8:50 comes at great cost, but then they end
8:52 up losing it back. So the net net is
8:54 Russia is up about 3,600 3,600
8:58 square kilometers, uh, with the net
9:01 shift inside of Russia's favor. Um, when
9:03 you take a look, Doug, at where things
9:06 have been since 2023
9:08 and when you look and you see that the
9:10 manpower capabilities, and now I did an
9:13 analysis just this morning, and it turns
9:15 out that of of the prime military age
9:17 males, not just all of them, but just
9:18 the prime military age, uh, Russia has
9:21 about 14 million more men from whom to
9:25 draw than the Ukraine side does. We are
9:28 in a war of attrition.
9:30 Is it even theoretically possible if you
9:33 have the the political will, let's just
9:35 say that on both sides it's an
9:36 existential thrust and they're both
9:38 right and they both believe it and
9:40 they're acting on it. If the manpower
9:43 resources are 14 million more on
9:46 Russia's side, it's about 3.5 million on
9:48 the Ukraine side that's left and about
9:50 17 to 20 million on the Russian side
9:54 where is there any rational path to say
9:57 let's keep supporting Ukraine?
9:59 What until they run out?
10:02 >> Well, keep in mind if you're winning,
10:04 uh, why take heavy casualties when you
10:07 know you don't need to?
10:09 I think this is very important because
10:10 that's the position the Russians are in.
10:13 As I've said on many occasions, there is
10:15 no leader in the history of Russia that
10:18 who has exhibited more concern for
10:20 Russian life on the battlefield and in
10:22 uniform than Vladimir Putin.
10:26 Uh even though the Russian population
10:27 [clears throat] is frustrated would like
10:28 to move faster and more decisively,
10:31 but he's held back.
10:33 And he's been very successful and
10:35 Ukrainians have obliged by adopting our
10:37 tactics and thinking and hurling
10:39 themselves pointlessly at the at the
10:43 in a in a fight they can't possibly win.
10:45 So I think that has to be borne in mind
10:47 right upfront. So before we go into the
10:50 let's look at where the Russians are and
10:52 and the question is
10:54 if things are falling apart and they are
10:56 in Ukraine, the state is dying,
10:59 why would you want to sacrifice
11:02 people in a in a major offensive if you
11:05 So I think that's on people's minds. I
11:09 we once we crossed the Rhine into
11:10 Germany, we moved very slowly. We didn't
11:13 move at the pace the Soviets did and one
11:15 of the reasons for that was that
11:17 Eisenhower didn't want to take any more
11:18 casualties than he had to. The British
11:20 were very similar. You can read
11:22 Armageddon by this Max Hastings and he
11:26 Both the Americans and the British by
11:27 that time were concerned about
11:29 casualties. Now the Americans less so
11:31 until that, but nevertheless
11:33 that was on everybody's mind. That's the
11:35 first thing. Second thing is that I
11:37 the Russians are quite capable of
11:39 launching a major offensive and that's
11:41 why you had the president of Finland
11:43 get on the phone with Putin along with
11:45 the president of Norway. I was really or
11:47 Prime Minister of Norway. I was very
11:49 surprised the Norwegians did that.
11:51 They've been among the most self-deluded
11:53 Europeans I've met about what's possible
11:56 and what isn't, what's real and what
12:01 [clears throat] Stub in from Finland
12:04 knows this war needs to end.
12:07 He knows that his country doesn't want
12:08 to be drawn into it. His country
12:11 has signed agreements along with Sweden
12:13 that effectively give us the right to
12:16 establish bases, moving capabilities,
12:18 forces, even nuclear weapons.
12:20 And that is a that that is just a
12:22 prescription for the extermination of
12:24 Sweden and Finland. I think they know
12:27 And this is going to sink in more and
12:29 more in the in the weeks and the months
12:32 We're we're really waiting around to
12:35 eliminate this man merits. And now you
12:37 see this rebellion in Poland against
12:42 And the Poles, of course, have done
12:43 everything short of
12:46 you know, castigate his heritage
12:48 by calling him really a German. You
12:52 Poles dislike, hate Russians. The only
12:55 other group of people they dislike and
12:57 hate almost as much are Germans. So what
12:59 do you want to do if you want to
13:00 discredit Tusk? Call him a German.
13:03 Why are they rebelling? They don't want
13:04 to be dragged into anything by the
13:08 This all of these institutions are
13:10 crumbling in Europe. Americans don't
13:12 know it. Nobody in Washington wants to
13:14 accept it. Washington is Versailles on
13:18 They're completely divorced from
13:19 reality. This last election, I think
13:22 really shook a lot of people up. They
13:24 didn't expect it. They thought they were
13:25 going to lose because everybody loses
13:28 midterms. You know that.
13:30 After World War II in 1946,
13:33 the Democrats were slaughtered because
13:35 people blamed them for the war and the
13:37 conduct of it. Many people were very
13:38 unhappy and with good reasons. So the
13:40 Republicans swept in.
13:42 We've been down this road many times.
13:44 Republicans came in after Wilson.
13:47 We're going to see it again in in in
13:49 future American history, but I think
13:51 they were really shocked
13:53 at the fact that everybody reported this
13:55 issue of the war that's shaken the whole
14:00 And the the Aipackers and the the
14:03 Patriots, Israeli Patriots, they weren't
14:06 prepared for that. I don't think they
14:10 hostility and hatred they've cultivated.
14:12 People are sick of this. What are we
14:14 doing over there? And why are we doing
14:17 I'm I'm glad that people are asking that
14:19 because I lived through Vietnam and we
14:23 And And nobody asked the hard questions
14:25 until we'd already lost 30,000 dead.
14:28 So thank God these questions have come
14:31 But it's it's just the beginning. I
14:33 think we're in a period of convulsive
14:35 change in the United States as well as
14:37 in Europe. Whatever you've been used to
14:39 for the last 50, 60, 70 years, write it
14:41 off. It's got to change. It's going to
14:43 be radically different. We see that in
14:45 the Gulf. What the Gulf looked like back
14:48 on 28 February is gone.
14:51 It's not coming back.
14:53 And whatever does come back is probably
14:55 going to be funded by the Chinese, not
14:58 And it's certainly not going to include
15:02 >> Yeah, there there that [clears throat]
15:04 that reality hasn't struck home yet. And
15:08 make a finer point here. So So all this
15:10 is how much territory Ukraine lost from
15:13 November 1st, '23 until the present
15:16 With the fact that they have fired from
15:18 the beginning of the war up through the
15:20 current time here, best estimate I can
15:23 searching a number of different sources
15:25 was about 20,000 interceptor missiles of
15:28 all different categories and calibers
15:30 were fired by the Ukraine side. That's
15:33 how much they lost at that point and the
15:35 damage that was done here. But now then,
15:38 pretty much open source information
15:40 here, Ukraine has run out of Patriot
15:44 We don't have anymore to give them.
15:46 Europe has some. They're not going to
15:48 give them up because they think, hey,
15:49 what if we need to fight Russia with
15:51 them? We don't even have enough for that
15:52 as it is. So they're not Nobody else is
15:54 going to give any interceptors to
15:55 Ukraine. So the question is from a
15:57 military perspective, if you can't
15:59 defend against glide bombs in the in the
16:01 operational zone, in the tactical zone
16:03 in the front, and now then you can't
16:05 defend it at all against ballistic
16:08 how [clears throat] can can Ukraine go
16:10 another two to five years of this kind
16:13 of attritional warfare?
16:15 >> No, and neither can Israel.
16:17 I mean, keep in mind that we we
16:19 estimated we have launched 19 years
16:22 worth of Patriot interceptors in 7
16:25 months in defense of Israel.
16:28 You want to know why there's nothing
16:31 Ukraine? We're busy trying to keep
16:33 Israel from being utterly and completely
16:35 annihilated uh by the Iranian missile
16:39 So you're the answer to your question is
16:42 readily apparent and obvious. No, none
16:45 You know, one of my favorite guys is Ben
16:47 Stein. He has a habit of saying things
16:49 in a very direct way that turn out
16:51 they're simple, but they're right.
16:53 And he says often, how long will this
16:55 last? He says, it will go until it
16:58 And I think that's what we're going to
16:59 see in Ukraine. I think we're going to
17:02 see something similar in the Middle East
17:04 with the Israelis and with us.
17:07 we can't replace uh you know, these vast
17:11 And we all all also know that contrary
17:15 at least 10 Patriot missiles have to be
17:17 fired to have at least a 50% chance of
17:20 knocking down the incoming Iranian
17:23 an unsustainable exchange.
17:26 We know that 80% of Iranian missiles and
17:28 drones are penetrating Israeli air
17:32 What is it in in Ukraine?
17:34 It's much larger. It's probably close to
17:36 100% of everything launched at Ukraine
17:39 penetrates Ukrainian airspace now. This
17:41 is unwinnable. Can't can't go on. It'll
17:46 >> And and what about internally? That
17:48 there's a lot of lot of uh in news here
17:51 in the last few days that the uh this
17:53 this Orwellian situation with this
17:59 an award-winning uh physician in Ukraine
18:02 uh found out that there was some illegal
18:04 secret prisons come what they call the
18:06 neo-Nazi led Azov corps uh was torturing
18:09 their own people. Uh and then of course
18:12 uh what else would you expect that they
18:15 have jailed the the driver of the of the
18:18 ambulance and the doctor herself who was
18:20 helping these people, um,
18:22 that can't play well among the
18:24 population in Ukraine. I mean, are they
18:26 fallen apart inside as well as losing it
18:29 on the on the battlefield?
18:33 I think that's the answer and I think
18:35 it's been going on for quite a while.
18:38 We we have only recently come into
18:40 possession of a lot of these videos
18:42 and they're now finding their way from
18:44 places like Slovakia and Poland that
18:46 border Ukraine into Germany and from
18:48 Germany to the United States.
18:51 They're they're horrible. They're beyond
18:55 Uh, little girls subjected to the worst
18:58 kind of treatment screaming for their
19:01 Uh, you know, this is the sort of
19:02 picture that you also got
19:04 from the Palestinians in Israeli custody
19:08 Uh, but this the Azov crowd has had a
19:11 bigger population to work with.
19:13 Uh, they've had war absolute control and
19:16 they've exploited it.
19:19 again, if you're a Russian and you're
19:22 you reach the conclusion that the only
19:24 obvious way to end this is to crush this
19:27 regime out of existence.
19:29 And the tragedy of all of this is that
19:31 we're supporting it and we continue to
19:34 just as we've continued to fund the mass
19:36 murder of Palestinians in Gaza.
19:39 Uh, so I don't you know, I
19:42 what what do you do? How long have we
19:43 been at this, Dan? This has been
19:44 dragging on for a long time for years.
19:47 We used to say, look, you know, we've
19:49 already got at least 1.5 million dead
19:51 Ukrainian soldiers. Now people are
19:52 finally seeing the figures
19:55 and you still have people reluctant to
20:00 How do you how do you get out of this
20:02 terrible mess when the entire media
20:04 establishment is an arm of the current
20:08 and the current government and the media
20:09 together want desperately to keep all of
20:15 >> Well, as you said, I mean, the reality
20:17 is is imposing itself and and just the
20:19 sheer numbers, the resources, the
20:21 manpower, the ammunition stockpiles, the
20:24 industrial capacity, it's not going to
20:26 keep going. At some point, God help us
20:29 if it expands into nuclear escalation. I
20:31 hope that it doesn't uh do that, but uh
20:33 I mean this this fiction just can't go
20:35 on much longer and it's just is
20:36 egregious that uh just like you
20:38 mentioned in the in in the Middle East
20:39 that the Palestinian population are the
20:41 suffering in that the the Ukrainian
20:44 population are the suffering here from
20:46 all of these different parties. They're
20:47 the ones that are the bill payers for
20:49 all of it to include their own
20:50 government, which is I think the most
20:53 uh cruel if not reprehensible factor of
20:57 >> Well, certainly not a government that we
20:59 should support and I hear all this crap
21:01 on a routine basis from people in
21:03 Washington. Our values. We have values.
21:08 I hope that's not our values.