0:00 This week, for the first time, the
0:02 leaders of the United States, Russia,
0:04 and China will sit at the same table.
0:07 President Trump, President Putin, and
0:10 President Xi in Shenzhen, China this
0:13 Thursday, November 19th. And according
0:16 to US officials, Ukraine is not on the
0:20 three-way agenda. By the end, you'll see
0:23 why the last nuclear treaty between
0:25 Washington and Moscow is gone. Why Iran
0:28 is on the table instead. And what that
0:31 means for the war in Europe.
0:35 This is Peter's World. Warfare,
0:38 geopolitics, and news.
0:43 Welcome to Peter's World. The White
0:46 House confirmed the meeting on Friday.
0:48 The Kremlin said on Saturday it will
0:51 take place on November 19th on the
0:53 sidelines of the APEC summit. US
0:57 officials and major news organizations
1:00 are describing it as the first three-way
1:02 meeting of the leaders of the United
1:04 States, Russia, and China. A senior US
1:08 official speaking to reporters said
1:11 Washington does not expect any kind of
1:14 agreement. The official called it quote
1:17 the entry point the first conversation
1:20 at leader level. President Trump will
1:23 also hold a separate meeting with
1:24 President Xi their fourth since he
1:27 returned to office according to US
1:29 officials. Whether he will also meet
1:32 President Putin one onone is being
1:35 described differently. Radio Free Europe
1:38 citing the White House says no separate
1:41 meeting is scheduled. A Kremlin aid has
1:44 said the two sides also plan a bilateral
1:47 meeting. The stage is Shenzhen, China's
1:50 tech hub in the south. Next to Hong
1:52 Kong, President Trump's trip goes first
1:55 to Manila for an ASDN meeting, then to
1:58 Shenzhen for a PEC and these talks. The
2:02 other item on the agenda is nuclear
2:04 arms. In April of 2010 in Prague,
2:09 President Obama and President Medv
2:12 signed New Start. It was the last treaty
2:15 capping American and Russian strategic
2:18 nuclear weapons. It expired on the 5th
2:21 of February this year. Arms control
2:23 groups in the United Nations say that
2:26 left the world's two largest arsenals
2:29 without those limits. For the first time
2:31 in more than 50 years, the Federation of
2:35 American Scientists, in its early 2026
2:38 estimates, puts Russia's total inventory
2:41 at about 5,400 warheads, the United
2:45 States at about 5,000, and China at
2:51 Together, Washington and Moscow still
2:54 hold about 86% of the world's nuclear
2:57 warheads. According to those same
3:00 estimates, President Trump rejected a
3:03 Russian proposal to extend New START for
3:05 one more year. He has called instead for
3:08 a new modernized deal that would include
3:11 China. In February, China's foreign
3:14 ministry said asking China to join
3:17 trilateral nuclear talks at this stage
3:19 would be quote neither fair, reasonable
3:23 nor realistic. SIPRI,
3:26 the Stockholm Research Institute,
3:28 estimates China's arsenal grew from
3:31 about 600 warheads in January of last
3:37 this January, and is still much smaller
3:40 than the American or Russian stockpiles.
3:43 A senior US official told Radio Free
3:46 Europe, quote, "We do not expect to get
3:48 to any kind of agreement. If these maps
3:51 help you follow the headlines, subscribe
3:54 to Peter's World. It really helps the
3:56 channel. So, if a nuclear deal is
3:59 unlikely, why are they meeting? US
4:02 officials say President Trump also
4:05 intends to raise Iran. The United States
4:08 and Israel went to war with Iran on
4:11 February 28th. Full-scale strikes have
4:14 eased, but the conflict has not ended.
4:17 The straight of Hormuz, the world's most
4:20 important oil choke point, has been at
4:22 the center of that war. Before the
4:25 fighting, about 20 million barrels of
4:27 oil a day moved through it. According to
4:30 the US Energy Information Administration
4:34 on Saturday, Iran's Navy and
4:37 Revolutionary Guards said fires broke
4:39 out on a total of three oil tankers
4:42 after they struck mines in the straight.
4:45 Reuters said it could not independently
4:47 verify the claim. Al Jazzer reports that
4:51 before this war about onethird of
4:53 China's crude oil supply transited
4:56 Hormuz. That is one reason the war
4:59 matters in Beijing. On Friday, Secretary
5:02 of State Marco Rubio said further US
5:05 military action against Iran is not
5:08 needed right now because economic
5:11 pressure on a weakened Thran is so
5:14 great. He also said, quote, "Victory
5:17 means they can't have a nuclear weapon
5:20 one way or another." The same week,
5:23 Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they
5:26 destroyed a US early warning radar in
5:29 Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy's fifth
5:32 fleet. US Central Command said that
5:34 claim was false and that American forces
5:37 shot down two one-way attack drones
5:40 headed toward Bahrain with no injuries
5:43 or damage. Ukraine is the issue that is
5:47 not supposed to be on this three-way
5:49 table. A senior US official said
5:52 Washington has a quote whole other track
5:54 on the war involving Washington, Moscow,
5:57 and Kiev and that China is not part of
6:00 it. Quote, "It doesn't seem appropriate
6:03 to have the Ukraine discussion there.
6:05 Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
6:08 began in February of 2022.
6:12 That war is now in its fifth year. Kiev
6:15 has opposed any great power deal made
6:17 over its head. Ukraine's foreign
6:19 minister has warned that a meeting of
6:22 this kind would embolden President Putin
6:25 rather than end the war. That is Kiev's
6:27 stated position. US envoys have been
6:30 meeting Ukrainian and Russian officials
6:33 on a separate track. President Zeli
6:35 Enski this week welcomed a pledge to
6:38 include European delegates in the next
6:41 round of talks with Russia. So the three
6:43 most heavily armed nuclear powers will
6:46 talk about Iran and about nuclear arms.
6:50 The war in Europe is reserved for a
6:52 different table if US officials keep to
6:55 their word. The meeting is set for
6:57 Thursday, November 19th in Shenzhen.
7:00 Watch whether China engages at all on a
7:03 future nuclear treaty or repeats that it
7:06 is too early. Watch what if anything is
7:09 said about Iran and about the Straight
7:11 of Hormuz where Thrron said more tankers
7:14 were hit this morning and watch whether
7:17 Ukraine comes up anyway. The Kremlin had
7:20 earlier suggested it could be discussed.
7:23 US officials say it is not expected on
7:26 this agenda. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri
7:28 Pescov called the meeting quote
7:31 extremely significant but said any
7:34 agreements cannot be imposed on other
7:36 nations. The last treaty that capped
7:38 American and Russian nuclear weapons is
7:41 already gone. Iran is the war they say
7:44 they will discuss. The war in Europe is
7:47 the one they say they will not. When
7:50 these three sit down on Thursday, what
7:52 should we be watching for? Tell us in
7:55 the comments. See you in the next
7:59 >> Thanks for watching Peterworld. There's
8:01 a lot more waiting for you at
8:04 Start in the war room with daily war
8:06 reports by theater from the Middle East
8:08 to the Indo-Pacific. Check our live
8:10 trackers like the Iran War Tracker and
8:13 see what's coming up on the events
8:14 calendar. All our social links are right
8:16 there on the site, too. If this helped,
8:18 like, share, and subscribe. Then pick
8:21 your next video right here on screen.