Paix et Guerre par Caroline Galactéros · published 3 days ago ·
found by searching “Baltics transit ban backfires”
Peace in Ukraine signals the end of Europe
La paix en Ukraine signe la fin de l’Europe
What the site found
Pushes the agenda · agenda: US-Russia talks decide Ukraine's fate
Belief the Pravda network pushes: Russia and the United States should negotiate Ukraine's future without Europe, while Ukraine and the West block peace and threaten Russia.
The host says the US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, held without Europeans, show Europe has become irrelevant, and that Europe has sabotaged peace and prolonged the war.
The video says · at 4:49 · quote checked against the transcript
“they tried to sabotage peace to try to win morally, according to their own naturally moral criteria, in the absence of a military victory”
they tried to sabotage peace to try to win morally, according to their own naturally moral criteria, in the absence of a military victory
It matches Agenda 1: it presents Ukraine's fate as something for Washington and Moscow to settle (even for a US-Russia-China architecture) while Europe is blamed for blocking peace, repeating Medinsky's accusations and saying the Russians have the upper hand, with no pushback or context.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
17 days ago · Europeans will not be invited to trilateral negotiations on Ukraine table, Kremlin emphasizes
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26 days ago · Western Voices: USA Softens Sanctions and Reviews Energy and Ukraine Relations Policy
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Transcript (en, 974 lines)
0:19 Dear friends of peace and war, I am
0:21 happy to welcome you back for a new
0:23 Mondoscopie.
0:24 It is November 11, 2026.
0:27 Today, well, we will talk as usual about
0:31 Ukraine and the Middle East.
0:34 We will start with Ukraine, which is
0:37 geopolitically causing the European
0:40 Union to disappear, because we can
0:42 clearly feel an acceleration on the part
0:46 of the Americans for reasons of their
0:49 own.
0:51 Not to please the Ukrainians, nor
0:53 obviously to please the Russians, but
0:56 there is nonetheless a desire to conduct
0:59 negotiations currently underway in Abu
1:01 Dhabi between the Russians, the
1:03 Ukrainians, and the Americans, who are
1:06 acting as mediators, even though they
1:09 are obviously the instigators of all
1:11 this since the end of the Cold War.
1:15 But well, Vladimir Putin, I was going to
1:18 say, is being a good sport and acting as
1:21 if he is ultimately in agreement to
1:23 consider them mediators in this matter,
1:26 for now at least.
1:29 So, these talks began yesterday.
1:34 The first conclusions, the first
1:36 statements made at the end of this first
1:39 day were very
1:43 conciliatory; it went well, there are
1:45 possible openings, we shall see, it will
1:48 be longer than expected.
1:50 Anyway, what is most important to notice
1:53 is obviously that there are no Europeans
1:56 there.
1:57 They were simply not invited. So, it is
2:00 still a total snub. Well, one that was
2:03 expected, we have known it for a long
2:05 time.
2:06 Every time something seemed to be taking
2:09 shape in terms of negotiations, they did
2:11 everything to hijack it, to make it fall
2:14 through anyway.
2:16 So, they were not convened—invited,
2:18 sorry.
2:20 I think the Russians actually made it a
2:22 sine qua non condition to agree to come
2:25 .
2:28 The head of the Russian delegation,
2:29 Medinsky, said that the Europeans will
2:32 be able to participate when their
2:33 conscience awakens.
2:36 And he added that, for now, they are
2:38 contributing to the massive death of
2:40 civilians.
2:42 So, that is still very, very direct and
2:44 very clear; meaning that, in fact,
2:46 obviously, the Europeans, by helping and
2:49 continuing to arm Ukraine, even with
2:51 American weapons, are ensuring that the
2:53 conflict continues and that, therefore,
2:55 there are effectively more and more
2:57 civilian casualties, on one side as well
3:00 as the other, for that matter.
3:03 And Medinsky also said that the
3:04 Europeans were engaging in a collective
3:06 deception of the Ukrainian people.
3:09 In short, so we can see that the mood
3:11 isn't exactly great, is it?
3:14 So, it's just Russians, Ukrainians, and
3:17 American mediators.
3:22 European representative Kaja Kallas, the
3:25 EU foreign policy chief, said a few
3:29 platitudes about how we must remain
3:32 united and that nothing can happen
3:35 without us, but frankly, she can't do
3:38 anything about it.
3:43 The problem is that Europe, despite all
3:46 this chatter, all these narratives, all
3:49 these postures and impostures in the
3:52 face of the stubborn reality of the
3:55 Ukrainian conflict, isn't it?
4:00 Well, for a long time now, the European
4:03 Union has become what I would call an
4:05 OGNI—an Unidentified Geopolitical Object
4:09 We don't know what it is. We no longer
4:11 know what it is; it doesn't exist
4:12 geopolitically in this matter.
4:14 So, you can always make declarations for
4:16 all eternity. It's pointless. In
4:19 concrete terms, it’s being discussed
4:20 without the Europeans. So, they are
4:22 discussing security guarantees.
4:24 That's the sticking point, since the
4:26 Europeans think they should send troops
4:28 to Europe—to Ukraine, sorry—to
4:31 supposedly guarantee the security of a
4:33 future agreement, which the Russians
4:35 have obviously flatly rejected.
4:39 So, we can clearly see that the
4:42 Europeans are now facing a
4:46 It’s the hour of truth, actually, if you
4:48 will.
4:49 Meaning they tried to sabotage peace to
4:52 try to win morally, according to their
4:54 own naturally moral criteria, in the
4:57 absence of a military victory.
5:00 We also clearly see that Europe is
5:02 fracturing. I talked about it last week
5:05 The Bulgarians, the Poles, the Slovaks,
5:07 and of course, the Germans.
5:10 Robert Fico, the Slovak Prime Minister,
5:13 just said that it is out of the question
5:16 for Slovakia to put another cent into
5:19 those famous 90 billion that are
5:22 supposed to be released for Ukraine,
5:25 right?
5:26 To Ukraine, once again.
5:30 Merz has threatened—the German
5:31 Chancellor has threatened—to block
5:33 European budget payments.
5:36 If all Europeans don't contribute to
5:37 this Ukrainian aid, to continuing this
5:39 aid.
5:41 But we can see that the rift is growing
5:44 wider between realists and ideologues
5:47 who persist in hiding their defeat and
5:50 their responsibility, because the moment
5:53 of accountability is approaching.
5:57 So, what should be done?
6:00 Well, Trump needs to push through and
6:03 enforce the re-neutralization of Ukraine
6:06 , and perhaps offer American security
6:08 guarantees alongside Russian ones so
6:11 that all of Europe can regain some form
6:14 of security architecture, since it
6:17 hasn't had one for a very long time, or
6:20 at least not since that famous Paris
6:23 Charter of November '90, which the
6:25 Europeans and Americans,
6:28 naturally, ignored, despite it speaking
6:31 of the indivisibility
6:36 of European security, which is clearly
6:38 the cardinal principle we must return to
6:43 But we can see quite clearly that we
6:45 aren't in agreement; the Russians and
6:47 Europeans are not at all on the same
6:49 page regarding this point.
6:51 There is another issue, and in speaking
6:53 of rebuilding European security, it
6:55 feels like it's finally dawned on the
6:56 White House. They've realized that they
6:58 are going to have to do something after
7:00 all.
7:01 But now, you have the Russian Deputy
7:04 Foreign Minister, Ryabkov, who is a very
7:07 influential figure under Lavrov, who has
7:10 said that in fact, the...
7:14 how should I put it...we can no longer
7:17 imagine rebuilding European security
7:19 outside the framework of Eurasia as a
7:22 whole, meaning the entire Eurasian
7:24 continent, which reaches all the way to
7:27 China.
7:28 So this is obviously a way of involving
7:31 China and also pressuring various
7:34 parties through China.
7:36 In other words, the Russians no longer
7:38 believe in what they held to be true for
7:40 a long time.
7:42 That is, that within the framework of
7:44 the relationship solely between the
7:46 United States, Europe, and Russia, it
7:48 was possible to have a viable security
7:50 balance.
7:52 Now, they are explaining—well, for now
7:54 it's Ryabkov, not Lavrov or Putin, but
7:56 it's clear that this is their line of
7:58 thinking.
7:59 They are explaining that all of this is
8:01 even broader. It must be conceived and
8:04 guaranteed by the three big powers, the
8:06 Americans, the Chinese, and the Russians
8:09 in the middle. Well, I'm doing a bit of
8:12 —I was going to say—anticipation here,
8:15 but I think we are heading toward
8:17 positions like that. I've been talking
8:19 about this since well before 2022.
8:22 It is the foundation for any improvement
8:24 , because otherwise, any agreement we
8:25 might imagine...Meanwhile, the Europeans
8:27 are obviously saying, "Oh no, there can
8:29 be no discussion or decisions regarding
8:31 European security until there is a peace
8:33 agreement on Ukraine."
8:35 They still haven't understood that from
8:38 the Russian point of view, and the
8:40 Russians have the upper hand, that's how
8:43 it is militarily and strategically with
8:46 the Americans. From the Russian point of
8:48 view,
8:50 the fate of Ukraine cannot be treated as
8:54 such.
8:55 It is part of a whole and it is part of
8:58 this entire balance of forces, of power
9:01 , and also of deterrence between the
9:03 United States, Russia, and therefore now
9:09 Trump seems to—well, Trump and the
9:12 people around him seem to understand the
9:14 interest for the Russians obviously, but
9:17 also for himself, because ultimately if
9:19 we encompass the Europeans in a very
9:22 broad structure, of course that won't
9:24 please the American neoconservatives.
9:28 Of course, it won't please the CIA, and
9:31 that doesn't mean the war will stop, but
9:33 it does mean that it's a way to regain
9:36 even tighter control over Europe, and
9:38 over the Europeans who will be both
9:41 protected and controlled.
9:44 Well, so, we can clearly see, in fact,
9:46 at the point we are at now, without
9:49 going into the details of the
9:50 negotiations that I don't know because
9:53 I'm not involved in them, that there is
9:55 a real mental, moral, political, and
9:57 strategic decoupling between Russia and
10:00 the European Union which is now—I was
10:02 going to say,
10:06 how should I put it?
10:08 —it is now part, it is now part of the,
10:10 the, the elements
10:14 solid, hard, if you will, and that
10:16 Russia has changed its perspective, in
10:19 fact, significantly.
10:21 It no longer wants Europe, it no longer
10:22 believes in it. It considers that it has
10:24 been betrayed, and besides, it now uses
10:27 the word betrayal, including Putin very
10:29 openly.
10:30 It obviously finds the current European
10:32 leaders hopeless.
10:35 Well, that's it, arrogance, ignorance,
10:39 and lack of professionalism.
10:44 Well, we are actually coming back to the
10:47 effects of what I called back in 2014,
10:50 2015, the Russian "spurned love."
10:53 And I stand by that expression because I
10:56 think it refers to a true reality.
11:00 We must not forget, once again, that
11:02 Vladimir Putin, when he came to power
11:05 and for a certain number of years after
11:07 , was probably, perhaps even since Peter
11:10 the Great, the most pro-European leader
11:13 in Russia, so to speak.
11:16 He was the one who wanted to move closer
11:18 to Europe. He was the one who wanted to
11:20 join NATO. He was the one who wanted to
11:22 conduct trade between Russia and Europe
11:24 in euros when the euro was born.
11:27 But well, the Europeans are incorrigible
11:30 And by the way, it’s clear, the European
11:33 Council has just extended the training
11:35 and equipment mandate for the Ukrainian
11:37 army until the end of 2028.
11:40 At the very moment of the talks in Abu
11:43 Dhabi, there are NATO maneuvers in the
11:45 Baltic Sea since November 9th that are
11:48 focused on submarine hunting, or at
11:50 least that's the theme, as well as
11:52 defense against drone threats. Obviously
11:55 , one can add "Russian" to all of that.
11:58 FSB.
12:01 The former KGB just announced that they
12:05 had arrested and were detaining two
12:08 Poles who were spies, collecting and
12:12 transmitting information on Russian
12:16 military personnel, military facilities
12:19 , and details on the socio-economic
12:23 situation in the Kaliningrad region.
12:27 You know, always that enclave between
12:29 Poland and Lithuania.
12:32 The FSB likely thinks, and they’ve
12:35 stated as much in the declarations made
12:38 since arresting these two individuals.
12:44 They explain that it was actually a
12:46 matter of fomenting a destabilization
12:49 campaign in Kaliningrad.
12:53 We shouldn't forget that a few months
12:56 ago, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski
12:59 explained that NATO could retake
13:02 Kaliningrad in a few days and defeat
13:05 Russia.
13:09 That's when the Russians explained that
13:11 it would be a bad idea, because they
13:13 would be forced to resort to nuclear
13:15 weapons if Kaliningrad were attacked.
13:19 In short, there is still this background
13:22 noise, which is the noise of an assumed
13:25 , desired, and organized escalation.
13:28 Uh.
13:31 And that is always there, even while we
13:34 are talking in Abu Dhabi about
13:36 potentially finding ways
13:41 to regain some balance, or at least a
13:43 form of de-escalation and an end to this
13:45 Ukrainian conflict.
13:47 Which is a dead end.
13:51 And let's not forget, I talked about
13:54 this in Mondoscopie two episodes ago,
13:57 the attempted coup d'état carried out by
14:00 Polish Prime Minister Tusk against the
14:03 president and the Constitutional Court,
14:06 which was held by the conservatives.
14:11 So here we see well that, once again in
14:14 Europe, there is a struggle between two
14:17 currents: the true pragmatists, the
14:19 realists, and the die-hard Europeanists
14:22 who cannot imagine that their dream is
14:24 collapsing and that if there is a Europe
14:27 to hope for and rebuild, it is a Europe
14:29 of nations.
14:32 The war of nerves continues while Europe
14:34 itself is in a very grave situation.
14:37 I won't talk about France, but in any
14:39 case, you are experiencing everything
14:41 that is happening in France yourself.
14:44 But it is Europe as a whole that is
14:47 actually in a crisis situation, and the
14:50 war in Ukraine and the positions taken
14:52 by Europeanists and the current European
14:55 leadership on Ukraine for nearly five
14:58 years now have, once again, only
15:00 accelerated the political and strategic
15:03 collapse of the European Union.
15:08 We are truly at a breaking point there
15:10 as well, whether it be in Germany where
15:12 the AfD
15:14 is making gains and where they are even
15:16 talking about banning it, aren't they?
15:18 That is to say, we are at a point where
15:20 , if you will: there is nothing left but
15:22 repression in the face of the obvious,
15:23 and we can clearly see that there is an
15:25 increasingly clear divorce, whether it
15:27 be in France, in Germany, even in Italy
15:29 , or in a number of other European
15:31 countries.
15:32 In Poland, therefore, there is a divorce
15:35 between the peoples and their
15:37 pro-European elites. There is a divorce
15:40 over the attitude to take toward Russia
15:42 , over the attitude to take toward the
15:45 conflict in Ukraine, over
15:49 well, how to get out of this trap and
15:51 how not to disappear at the same time.
15:54 And that is still going to depend a
15:56 great deal on France and Germany, which
15:58 remain the two major powers of the
16:00 European Union.
16:02 Well, Germany accepted having its gas
16:03 cut off. It has deindustrialized itself
16:07 It now has significant social problems.
16:13 It has bankruptcies occurring in a
16:15 cascade. It has economic stagnation,
16:18 which is really not at all typical for
16:21 Germany. As for France, well, there you
16:23 go, you know what the situation is.
16:27 The cost of financing our debt is
16:31 exploding, inflation, and internal
16:34 social fragilities between social
16:38 classes because we are on a budgetary
16:42 trajectory that is actually
16:45 unsustainable.
16:48 And so we are already in an economic
16:51 crisis, but one that risks worsening and
16:53 being further exacerbated by the
16:56 conflict in the Middle East, which is
16:58 also at an impasse.
17:01 Uh, so one could say that this is
17:03 perhaps the opportunity to make good
17:05 decisions and to undertake fundamental
17:08 reforms regarding the very shape of
17:10 Europe.
17:13 That is to say, leave behind this sort
17:15 of federalist illusion and return to
17:18 strong intra-European cooperation and
17:20 even to forms of integration.
17:23 I am thinking of trade, I am thinking of
17:25 areas where it is good for Europe to be
17:27 united, if only when facing China,
17:29 Russia, or the United States.
17:32 But there are also a whole host of areas
17:34 where the unanimity rule remains
17:36 paralyzing, where if we want to move
17:39 forward, we will truly have to reform at
17:41 a fundamental level.
17:44 The question is: will the European
17:48 leaders who are still in power accept
17:51 this idea or will they not?
17:55 And that is the bad scenario that I
17:57 obviously dread, and I am not alone.
18:01 Meaning that they will try to further
18:04 escalate the conflict in Ukraine as a
18:07 distraction, as a diversion, as a
18:10 scapegoat for their own powerlessness
18:13 and incompetence, and ensure that
18:16 ultimately the entire continent shifts
18:19 into open hostility toward Moscow over
18:22 Ukraine, using Ukraine as a pretext,
18:27 to avoid having to make fundamental
18:30 reforms that would inevitably challenge
18:33 their power, their credibility, and
18:36 everything that keeps them where they
18:39 are today.
18:41 Regardless, we are therefore facing the
18:44 complete and growing failure, in my
18:46 opinion, of these European leaders who
18:49 ultimately tried to create unity on the
18:52 back of Russia, to create this unity,
18:55 and even to create this militarization
18:57 through the idea of European strategic
19:00 sovereignty, remember?
19:03 Created under the pretext of Russia, by
19:06 considering Russia a common enemy, that
19:08 it wants to invade us, that we must
19:11 prepare for it, that we are on the brink
19:13 of war, and that within 3 years, not
19:15 only the EU but NATO must be capable of
19:18 waging a high-intensity war against
19:22 In short, from the American perspective
19:24 , all of this is not bad, is it, that
19:27 the Europeans are drowning in these
19:29 ideas that are, in my opinion,
19:30 completely abstruse. Why not? Because it
19:34 divides Europe, because inevitably it
19:36 does not happen without friction.
19:40 It obviously cuts it off from Russia,
19:42 and we know that this is a long-standing
19:44 American strategic idea that is still
19:45 very much alive.
19:48 It weakens it economically, therefore in
19:52 terms of competition. That's good.
19:56 And it gives Washington the means—much
19:59 like the Chinese, by the way—it gives
20:02 Washington the means to deal with
20:05 European states in a, well, scattered
20:07 order, so to speak.
20:09 So, we will see what the Germans do, but
20:13 it is being said that
20:16 If you like, there are taboos that can
20:18 be broken.
20:20 One of those taboos is that Germany may
20:22 no longer need the euro as it is or as
20:24 it has become.
20:29 On the other hand, and in any case if
20:31 the AfD came to power, it would
20:34 certainly need to reopen Nord Stream and
20:36 be able to take advantage of it again to
20:39 re-industrialize, to breathe new life
20:42 into its economy.
20:44 It will need Russian gas at a low price
20:46 , right? Because for now, we must not
20:48 forget that, yes, of course, there is
20:49 gas, but it's American, and it is four
20:51 times more expensive.
20:53 So, there...we really made the worst of
20:55 all calculations, we did it, and it is
20:58 actually the European citizens who are
21:01 paying for it.
21:03 That is the reality.
21:06 So, we shall see,
21:10 if Germany finally manages—though that's
21:13 not the case with Merz, certainly—but if
21:16 it manages to put back in place an
21:18 energy policy, I was going to say
21:21 sovereign, that ensures its energy
21:23 security, in fact one that can fuel its
21:26 development or at least its exit from
21:29 the crisis.
21:32 In any case, well, you know what I think
21:35 I have said it many times: I think we
21:38 need cooperation in Europe, obviously
21:40 intense between European states, but
21:43 flexible, and certainly not uniformity,
21:45 and certainly not acting as if we were
21:48 one, because we are not one.
21:52 That, for me, is the failure of
21:53 Europeanism, and the war in Ukraine has
21:56 really accelerated all of that.
21:59 Well, last principle, it is obvious that
22:02 if we want Europe to pull through, it
22:05 will have to completely revise its
22:08 vision of Russia and be capable of
22:11 imagining a role for it in this European
22:14 integration.
22:16 Well, that doesn't mean joining the EU,
22:18 obviously, that would be nonsense, and
22:20 once again, the Russians no longer wish
22:22 for that at all.
22:24 But it is obvious that, just as we
22:26 cannot make war or peace in Ukraine
22:28 without Russia, we cannot build a viable
22:31 , sustainable Europe without a peaceful
22:33 relationship with Russia, which is our
22:35 neighbor, which is gigantic, which is
22:37 immense, which is extremely rich.
22:41 It's just a geopolitical absurdity, in
22:45 fact.
22:47 It's a fantasy, it's an ideology, it's
22:49 dogmatism, it's whatever you want to
22:52 call it.
22:53 But it has no rationality. It makes no
22:56 rational sense, not in the short, medium
22:59 , or long term.
23:01 So, if you will, we really need to
23:04 undergo a mental and intellectual
23:06 revolution.
23:08 And we need to do it quickly, because we
23:10 have already lost a lot of time.
23:14 We lost, well, we lost the entire
23:17 post-Cold War phase, when the Russians
23:20 were very, very willing, they really
23:23 wanted it.
23:25 But they were led down a path of decline
23:27 and brought to their knees during the
23:28 90s. But afterwards, they still wanted
23:30 to engage again when Putin came to power
23:33 Yet we rebuffed all of that and prepared
23:36 for a confrontation quite methodically.
23:41 I won't go back over the CIA bases in
23:44 Ukraine, or everything we did to
23:46 orchestrate and build up the Ukrainian
23:49 army and intelligence services via the
23:52 CIA and MI6.
23:55 Or by Western services and NATO armies,
23:57 well, you know.
24:01 So, once again, the risk is that there
24:04 won't be a return to reason, and the
24:08 current European political establishment
24:12 will choose military escalation before
24:16 economic realities catch up and force a
24:20 change.
24:23 That is the risk.
24:27 Moving on to my second subject, Iran,
24:30 which remains a stalemate and a period
24:33 of significant danger, a very volatile
24:36 phase.
24:39 The Iranian Supreme Leader reportedly
24:43 asked the secretary of Iran's Supreme
24:46 National Security Council to move beyond
24:50 this state of neither war nor peace.
24:55 So, what does that mean?
24:57 Does it mean agreeing to talk again with
24:59 Americans who have betrayed negotiations
25:02 multiple times and launched strikes in
25:05 the middle of talks?
25:07 Does it mean
25:11 striking first?
25:14 For now, that is not happening. On the
25:16 other hand, there are American attacks,
25:20 "hit-and-run" if you will, over these
25:22 last few weeks.
25:26 But the Iranians are not responding,
25:29 likely to avoid reigniting the conflict
25:33 and giving either Israel or the American
25:36 hawks a pretext to resume strikes.
25:42 But as I explained in the last and the
25:45 second-to-last Mondoscopie, I believe,
25:47 uh, Trump, until the new American
25:50 Congress is seated in early January,
25:53 that is to say until next January 3rd,
25:56 has a window, in fact, if I dare say, of
25:59 opportunity, in which he can resume
26:01 strikes without the new Democratic
26:04 Congress, the House of Representatives
26:07 and the Senate that he both lost,
26:09 opposing it.
26:12 So, I listened to one, and I encourage
26:14 you to listen to it, I listened to an
26:16 interview on CBS with Trump that is
26:18 absolutely extraordinary.
26:21 It really is a classic piece where he
26:24 explains that yes, well yes, yes, he
26:26 lost there but really it's because his
26:28 name obviously wasn't on the ballots
26:30 because otherwise he would have won
26:32 everything.
26:35 That he has obviously already destroyed
26:37 Iran to a considerable extent.
26:39 That would be news to everyone.
26:41 Anyway, clearly, he believes it, in any
26:43 case, he says it, he dares to say it, uh
26:46 , that he can restart all that very
26:48 quickly, very well, very forcefully and
26:51 basically, he still has the power of
26:53 life and death over Iran.
26:56 I remind you that Iran is roughly the
26:58 size of Europe and has almost 100
27:00 million people. Anyway, well, that, it,
27:03 it also seems quite within Donald
27:05 Trump's reach. Anyway, in short, he gave
27:08 a
27:11 absolutely comic interview in fact. Well
27:14 , I find it comic, uh, a bit pathetic
27:16 obviously when you, when you know the
27:18 reality of things.
27:21 Uh, so since it's Donald Trump, right,
27:24 and he says everything and its opposite
27:26 in the same day and several times, uh,
27:29 we cannot exclude that he might be
27:32 shrewd enough to take advantage, so to
27:34 speak, of his defeat to get himself out
27:37 of the quagmire.
27:40 And for me, that's what I hope, and I
27:41 hope there are people around him who
27:43 still understand that it is not in the
27:44 American interest to relaunch the
27:46 strikes.
27:49 And between the statements that were
27:51 made after the midterms, which I have
27:53 already told you about, and his own here
27:56 , including in this interview, uh, we
27:58 see that he has nevertheless become
28:00 aware that there was a slight problem,
28:02 right, in American society regarding
28:05 Israel.
28:07 Well, and regarding, ultimately, the
28:09 fact that the Americans had waged war
28:12 for Israel, the United States was not
28:14 threatened by Iran in any way, right.
28:18 Yet, they launched strikes on February
28:21 28th, just as they had the previous June
28:23 and so on; they launched a war, I mean,
28:26 a war of choice, of pure choice.
28:30 So, could he take advantage of the fact
28:33 that Congress is shifting to the
28:36 Democrats, putting him in a more
28:38 delicate situation, to say, "Well, I've
28:41 heard what was said and I might resume a
28:45 few strikes, just pretending, and then
28:48 declare victory"?
28:51 Because you have to understand that in
28:54 American foreign policy, there is a
28:57 large element of—Americans would call it
29:00 "bullshitting"—a large element of
29:03 bluster, really.
29:06 They sell the war, they sell the peace,
29:09 they sell victory, often disconnected
29:11 from the reality of their military
29:14 position.
29:16 And that is exactly the case here, since
29:19 Iran still has the
29:22 still has the weapon, the weapon.
29:25 Well, they are ready to—they are ready
29:27 to respond.
29:29 They keep ramping up threatening
29:31 statements along the lines of: "If you
29:33 resume the strikes, it will hurt very,
29:36 very much, not just your bases, but the
29:38 entire region and, truthfully, any state
29:41 identified as an enemy of Iran and as
29:44 complicit with the United States or
29:46 Israel."
29:48 Uh,
29:51 so, for now, if you will, the Iranians
29:53 are sticking to the same position, but
29:55 the problem is that Trump would have to
29:58 swallow that pill.
30:01 That is to say, we will not discuss
30:04 anything until you respect the agreement
30:07 you signed.
30:09 There it is, they signed it at
30:11 Versailles, it was discussed in
30:12 Islamabad.
30:13 That is what is called the memorandum of
30:15 understanding.
30:17 So, in fact, the Iranians, who are in a
30:20 position of strength because they pose a
30:23 considerable threat not only to Hormuz
30:26 and Bab el-Mandeb via the proxies, but
30:29 actually to the global economy, which is
30:32 clearly feeling the backlash of the
30:34 forty-day war, the war from last
30:37 February.
30:41 The Iranians, who are still suffering
30:43 greatly from the sanctions, who want to
30:47 recover their frozen assets, who want
30:49 the conflict to stop, who want the
30:52 American naval blockade—which admittedly
30:56 doesn't work very well, or hardly at all
30:59 , but is still a nuisance for them—who
31:02 want all that, are still ready to talk
31:05 with the Americans,
31:08 but based on the prior respect of the
31:11 seven points of the Memorandum of
31:13 Understanding, and we can clearly see
31:16 that the Americans, well, are not quite
31:19 on the same page.
31:21 He continues to talk about the nuclear
31:24 program and Trump speaks about it again
31:26 in this interview that I mentioned.
31:28 Uh
31:30 he explains that Iran cannot have the
31:32 bomb.
31:34 Even though Iran doesn't have the bomb,
31:35 even though Iran has stated it doesn't
31:37 have the bomb, even though the IAEA has
31:38 stated for years it doesn't have the
31:40 bomb, that the American intelligence
31:41 community confirms Iran is not close to
31:43 having the bomb, all of that.
31:45 And who had the fatwa from the Supreme
31:47 Leader saying they shouldn't have the
31:49 bomb?
31:49 All of that didn't prevent American
31:51 aggression in fact, and Israeli
31:53 aggression.
31:55 So, in my opinion, on the American side
31:59 , they are not at all ready to
32:01 acknowledge the failure of this war.
32:05 And besides, in the interview, he says "
32:07 No, no, it's not a failure. If I had to
32:08 do it again, I would do it again. I did
32:10 very well. We did very well. We did
32:12 something for the whole world. Anyway,
32:15 there you go. continues.
32:20 So we haven't arrived, we are not out of
32:23 the woods, so to speak, but we can
32:25 clearly feel that there is probably not
32:27 necessarily a desire on his part to go
32:30 back on the attack, primarily for
32:32 reasons of limited military resources.
32:37 As for retaliation, well, it's a bit
32:39 like opening Pandora's box all over
32:42 again,
32:45 with consequences that are still hard to
32:48 calculate, perhaps even much worse than
32:51 what even the Iranians are saying.
32:56 And perhaps he is telling himself that
32:58 it is time to take a few steps.
33:01 So that could be the recognition of a
33:03 necessity, which would be to politically
33:06 address the degradation of Israel's
33:08 image in the United States since the war
33:13 Uh, it is said that it could be Eisenkot
33:15 , the former chief of the Israeli
33:17 General Staff, who forms the new
33:19 government, at least at the moment I am
33:21 recording because things are moving a
33:23 lot.
33:25 And he is not in favor of resuming
33:26 strikes, unlike Netanyahu who wants them
33:28 and who reportedly calls Trump at the
33:30 White House every day to tell him" we
33:32 must go back, we must go back, we must
33:33 go back.
33:34 "Right, so there, perhaps Trump could
33:38 leverage this,
33:42 this relative diversity within, uh, the
33:46 Israeli political elite, uh, which means
33:49 that there are still people who think
33:52 that it is perhaps not a good idea to
33:55 resume heavy strikes, at least on Iran,
33:58 because it could backfire on Israel
34:01 quite severely.
34:06 So, in the panoply of endless American
34:08 pressures on Iran that are each supposed
34:11 to collapse the Iranian economy, make
34:14 the people revolt, well, you know, all
34:16 the American fantasies of regime change
34:23 There is the latest thing, it's the,
34:26 it's the, it's the attempt to create a
34:29 road blockade, a land blockade if you
34:32 will, to prevent Iran from continuing
34:35 not only to trade, to possibly sell oil
34:38 , but also to trade through Pakistan and
34:41 across the Caspian Sea, in particular.
34:46 So there,
34:49 well, it's clear, we can really feel
34:51 that, if you like, since they are no
34:54 longer succeeding militarily, the
34:56 Americans are trying to wage a heavy
34:58 economic war
35:02 at the risk of, of, of ultimately
35:04 broadening, of relaunching the military
35:07 confrontation at some point, of
35:09 relaunching the global economic crisis.
35:12 Well, I remind you all the same that
35:14 Iran has been under sanctions for half a
35:15 century, and it hasn't worked, has it?
35:17 There you go.
35:19 Whether it was under Obama or under
35:22 Trump with the policy of maximum
35:24 pressure, well, in the end, it didn't
35:27 bring what the Americans were expecting
35:32 I'm not even talking about the
35:34 decapitation strike which actually
35:36 reinvigorated Iran and is causing Iran
35:39 to emerge, not as a world power, but as
35:41 a major regional power that the entire
35:44 Middle East is now forced to reckon with
35:47 , not as a lost, isolated country, etc.
35:49 , but as a country that is a member of a
35:52 super-powerful trio it forms with China
35:54 and Russia.
35:57 Uh, and there you have it, it's not a
36:00 land blockade, they called it" Iron Gate
36:03 , "uh, the iron door, isn't it?
36:07 which is going to
36:10 ensure that Iran is strangled and which
36:13 will compensate, in quotes, for the
36:16 military failure of the American armies
36:19 in the war launched at the end of last
36:25 So of course, Iran is suffering from all
36:27 these sanctions, but it continues to
36:29 resist.
36:32 Uh, and you have to understand that
36:35 Iranian geography itself makes a total
36:38 blockade, uh, impossible, if you will.
36:43 Uh, it's—it's just too difficult.
36:47 This—this country maintains connections
36:50 in every direction, if you will: through
36:53 Pakistan, through Afghanistan, through
36:55 Turkmenistan, through Azerbaijan,
36:57 Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq.
37:01 Every country which is undoubtedly
37:04 looking at it differently today, uh,
37:07 than the way it looked at it before last
37:13 So there are all the Caspian Sea routes
37:15 that connect Iran to Kazakhstan and
37:20 Now you might tell me, of course, that
37:22 many of these countries are economically
37:24 fragile.
37:25 Washington can apply pressure, and they
37:27 obviously do.
37:29 Uh, but it cannot prevent all trade.
37:35 Uh, we can see this with Turkey and
37:37 Pakistan, which are each, uh, in
37:39 difficult economic situations and are
37:42 under very strong American pressure, but
37:44 it doesn't actually work because they
37:46 also have commercial interests in
37:48 continuing, uh, to trade with Tehran.
37:53 As for Russia and China, there's no need
37:56 to say that they are obviously two great
37:58 powers that have forms of organic
38:00 resistance, in fact.
38:04 To what the Americans want to do, right
38:08 And so, in fact, if the Americans even
38:11 wanted to hit Russia, or hit Iran, if
38:14 you will, via Russia, they would have to
38:17 attack Russian ships directly, right.
38:22 And that would mean putting themselves
38:24 at risk of direct military confrontation
38:27 with Moscow.
38:28 I don't think that is at all what the
38:30 Americans have in mind.
38:33 We must also mention that, as shown by
38:36 recent visits, notably from the
38:39 secretary of the Iranian Supreme
38:41 National Security Council to Moscow, and
38:45 all the others that don't stop, like the
38:48 visit from the Foreign Minister.
38:53 Well, all this between Moscow and Tehran
38:56 shows there really is a strategic and
38:58 economic partnership that is
39:00 strengthening—military too, of course—
39:03 but it is strengthening, perhaps
39:05 somewhat along the lines—maybe, uh,
39:08 maybe to a lesser extent, but still in a
39:10 very significant way—along the lines of
39:13 the one that exists between China and
39:16 Iran.
39:19 So, there have been quite a few
39:21 high-level meetings so far and, above
39:23 all, there is...One must never forget
39:26 that corridor I told you about in
39:28 several" Clés du monde, "which is very
39:31 important, called the North-South
39:33 transport corridor, which connects
39:35 Russia with Asia, notably India, and
39:38 also with Africa, with African markets,
39:41 through Iran.
39:43 So Iran is fundamental for Russia.
39:45 It's not just helping them because the
39:47 Americans are against them. It's
39:50 fundamental for the development of
39:53 Russia, which itself faces, has faced,
39:56 very heavy sanctions, notably on its
39:59 European front, its European flank, and
40:03 which therefore has considerable
40:06 economic interests on the Asian side, on
40:09 the African side, and which does not
40:12 intend to be cut off in this area.
40:17 So, if you will, Iran could actually
40:20 become a hub, notably for, for, for
40:23 Russian grain.
40:25 You know that for Russian cereals, there
40:27 have been staggering harvests there this
40:30 year, last year too, I believe.
40:33 And in fact, Iran could be a hub for
40:36 redistributing Russian grain to Asia, to
40:39 Africa, and so on.
40:43 There are also, of course, gas pipeline
40:45 projects
40:50 between Russia and Iran and potentially
40:53 all the markets of Western Asia, in fact
40:56 , and the entire Indian subcontinent.
41:01 So, if you will, there is this whole
41:03 part of the major negotiations taking
41:06 place that we don't see because we are
41:09 stuck.
41:10 We have, we have our noses stuck.
41:13 And we look at things through the wrong
41:15 end of the telescope; we don't
41:16 understand the scale of the issues that
41:19 actually structure the alliances
41:24 between these great powers that are
41:27 China and Russia and, of course, Iran,
41:30 but also Turkey, but also Pakistan,
41:32 which are major regional powers, in fact
41:37 So one must see all this at this level,
41:40 and one must understand that considering
41:43 all these issues, well, there will be no
41:46 peace on American terms. There you go.
41:49 So, in fact, there is a moment where the
41:51 Americans will either resume the strikes
41:54 Once again, I am not saying that the
41:56 Americans will be clever enough,
41:58 intelligent enough to understand that
42:00 they must scale back their ambitions
42:04 in this area with regard to Iran.
42:07 But there could be a resurgence of
42:10 strikes, yet there could also come a
42:12 point where they realize they can't be
42:15 on all fronts at once, and if Trump
42:18 wants to leave a legacy, well, it could
42:21 perhaps be an intelligent one.
42:24 He could, for example, explain that he
42:26 destroyed a large part of the Iranian
42:28 forces, which is partially true, but
42:30 also partially false.
42:33 But sell it as a victory to American
42:35 citizens, right, who aren't aware of
42:38 everything I'm telling you, and explain
42:41 that he ultimately did the world a
42:43 service and that we must find some form
42:46 of agreement with Iran, and effectively
42:49 be able to shift his forces and redeploy
42:52 them elsewhere.
42:55 That is what I wanted to tell you today
42:59 I won't—I've already been too long, so
43:02 I'll stop.
43:04 Thank you for your attention.
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43:42 "There you go, thank you, dear friends.
43:44 See you soon. Goodbye. Ah.
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