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Daily digest: Lavrov shut Europe out – what will Moscow demand?
Сводка дня. «В гостинице посидят». Лавров выставил Европу за дверь. Чего Москва потребует?
What the site found
Pushes the agenda · agenda: US-Russia talks decide Ukraine's fate
Belief the Pravda network pushes: Russia and the United States should negotiate Ukraine's future without Europe, while Ukraine and the West block peace and threaten Russia.
The video presents the Abu Dhabi talks as Washington and Moscow settling European security, with Ukraine as just one agenda item, Europe left in the hotel, and Kyiv and Europe as obstacles to peace.
The video says · at 1:16 · quote checked against the transcript
“And in this conversation, Ukraine turns out to be not the main participant, but one of the items on the agenda.”
And in this conversation, Ukraine turns out to be not the main participant, but one of the items on the agenda.
The video adopts the Kremlin line that the US and Russia decide Ukraine's fate without Europe. It backs Moscow's refusal of a ceasefire, says Kyiv seeks a pause only to wait for "new money, new weapons", and says Europe has "become an obstacle to peace", all without pushback.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
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Transcript (en, 1041 lines)
0:02 Hello. You are watching Sovet Spay.
0:04 Let's get started.
0:06 Odesa region, the morning of November 11
0:08 .
0:08 About 135,000 people are without power.
0:11 In Kryvyi Rih, about 20 explosions were
0:13 counted overnight. And as war
0:15 correspondents report, a 330 kV
0:16 substation burned down there.
0:19 Ukrenergo warned in advance that today
0:21 in several regions, blackout schedules
0:23 will be in effect all day for both
0:25 factories and apartments.
0:27 Meanwhile, in Kyiv, there are traffic
0:28 jams on the approaches to the bridges
0:29 over the Dnieper since the morning. The
0:31 city is already seriously discussing
0:32 what will happen if the bridges are
0:34 closed, and Ukrainian publications are
0:36 asking a question that would have seemed
0:38 wild a year ago: will Kyiv be divided in
0:40 two?
0:41 On the same day in Abu Dhabi, for the
0:42 first time in 9 months, a Ukrainian
0:44 delegation sat at the same table with
0:45 Russian and American ones.
0:47 The Presidential Office is presenting
0:48 this as a step toward a just peace.
0:50 Zelensky calls the conversation
0:51 constructive and immediately explains to
0:53 journalists that Putin lives in a
0:55 different reality.
0:57 Although, if you look at who is losing
0:58 power right now and who isn't, the
1:00 question of who lives in which reality
1:02 becomes not so simple.
1:04 The main thing to understand about Abu
1:06 Dhabi is this. Moscow arrived there to
1:08 bargain not for Donbas—or rather, not
1:10 just for Donbas. It is about how Russia
1:12 and Europe will live after the shooting
1:15 stops.
1:16 And in this conversation, Ukraine turns
1:17 out to be not the main participant, but
1:19 one of the items on the agenda. They
1:20 understand this in Washington, they
1:22 understand this in Moscow, and judging
1:23 by the nervous statements, they are
1:25 starting to understand it in Kyiv.
1:27 Let's go through everything in order and
1:29 see why this happened.
1:31 It is useful to start with who was
1:32 sitting at the table.
1:34 The Ukrainian side, among others, is
1:35 represented by the head of the
1:37 presidential office, Kyrylo Budanov.
1:39 The Russian delegation is large—five
1:41 people and six experts, with four of
1:43 them, as agencies report, attending such
1:45 negotiations for the first time.
1:47 Among the experts is FSB officer Dmitry
1:49 Minayev.
1:50 Ukrainian intelligence has long accused
1:52 him of preparing an assassination
1:54 attempt on Budanov in 2019.
1:56 France's Le Monde describes with
1:58 pleasure how these two met at the
2:00 Emirates Palace hotel, and how Budanov
2:02 acted with irony, as if he had unraveled
2:04 another Kremlin provocation.
2:06 But whether this is a provocation or not
2:08 doesn't matter.
2:09 Something else is important.
2:11 Moscow brought people to the
2:12 negotiations who know the Ukrainian side
2:14 better than it knows itself.
2:16 UNIAN notes with some surprise that
2:18 three members of the Russian delegation
2:20 were actually born on the territory of
2:21 present-day Ukraine—presidential aide
2:23 Vladimir Medinsky, military intelligence
2:25 general Alexander Zorin, and the
2:27 aforementioned Minayev. There is another
2:29 curious detail.
2:31 A TASS source said that the Russian and
2:33 Ukrainian delegations communicated with
2:35 each other in Russian.
2:37 For 4.5 hours, with a 40-minute break,
2:39 people who have been pretending for
2:41 years that they don't understand each
2:43 other calmly spoke the same language.
2:46 A clear illustration of just how
2:47 artificial this barrier was.
2:50 And now to the most important part. Who
2:51 else ended up in Abu Dhabi? War
2:53 correspondent Evgeny Poddubny, citing
2:55 the American portal Axios, writes that
2:58 the talks are being attended by the
3:00 Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S.
3:02 General Alexus Grynkewich.
3:04 And then everything falls into place. A
3:06 NATO general is not needed to discuss
3:08 prisoner exchanges or the front line
3:10 near Pokrovsk.
3:11 He is needed when it comes to where
3:13 alliance troops will be stationed, how
3:15 many there will be, and what will happen
3:17 to Russia-NATO relations as a whole.
3:19 Leaked information from both sides
3:21 confirms this.
3:22 RBC Ukraine, citing sources, writes that
3:24 the main topic of the first day was the
3:26 future security architecture in Europe—
3:28 specifically for Europe, Ukraine, and
3:30 Russia.
3:32 The American think tank ISW, which is
3:34 hardly known for having sympathies
3:36 toward Moscow, concludes that Russia has
3:38 returned to the demands it presented to
3:40 Washington and NATO back in 2021, before
3:42 the start of the special military
3:44 operation.
3:46 Poddubny, from the Russian side,
3:48 formulates the same thing—in short,
3:49 Ukraine is just one element of the
3:51 negotiations.
3:52 When both Kyiv and Moscow say the same
3:54 thing, just with different intonations,
3:56 that is usually the truth.
3:58 And this is where it becomes clear why
4:00 the Bankova office is so nervous.
4:02 As long as the conversation was about
4:04 Donbas, Kyiv could claim all it wanted
4:06 that it wouldn't give up a single meter
4:08 and wait for things to change.
4:10 But Kyiv does not decide on a grand deal
4:12 regarding European security.
4:14 Washington, Moscow, and to some extent
4:16 European capitals, decide.
4:19 And Kyiv is being invited to agree to
4:21 what others have negotiated. Look at how
4:23 the Americans behaved after the first
4:25 day.
4:26 Secretary of State Marco Rubio called
4:27 the talks very productive; he admitted,
4:29 of course, that the issue wouldn't be
4:31 solved in a single day, but the tone was
4:33 extremely positive.
4:35 Rubio added that Washington wants to
4:36 expand the format and directly involve
4:38 the Europeans.
4:39 Steve Witkoff stated that the Americans
4:41 have excellent relations with Zelensky
4:43 and the Ukrainian team.
4:45 That is usually how one speaks about a
4:46 partner they are about to persuade.
4:49 And Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law,
4:51 uttered a phrase that everyone is
4:53 quoting today.
4:54 According to him, based on what he and
4:56 Witkoff heard from Putin, one can say
4:58 with reasonable confidence that Putin is
4:59 ready for peace under the right
5:01 conditions. The key words are: "under
5:03 the right conditions."
5:04 In Kyiv, they prefer not to hear them,
5:06 yet that is exactly where the core of
5:07 the matter lies. Moscow is not saying "
5:09 peace at any price"; Moscow is saying "
5:11 peace on specific terms."
5:13 And the Americans, it seems, have
5:14 listened to these terms and did not walk
5:16 away from the table. What these
5:18 conditions are is also starting to leak
5:19 out bit by bit.
5:21 A Ukrainian commentator writes that the
5:22 U.S. is prepared to discuss restrictions
5:24 on the Ukrainian army and the lifting of
5:26 sanctions on Russia. Moreover, Europe
5:28 was against it, and no one really asked
5:30 Ukraine.
5:31 The publication's headline is telling: "
5:32 Trump has given Putin a trump card."
5:35 The Gordon publication, citing media
5:36 reports, writes that the Americans have
5:38 for the first time asked Moscow for
5:40 consent for the US and Europe to provide
5:42 Ukraine with guarantees similar to
5:43 Article 5 of the NATO charter.
5:46 In other words, Washington is asking
5:47 Moscow for permission. Just think about
5:49 that. Guarantees for Ukraine, which Kyiv
5:51 has spoken so much about, are now being
5:53 discussed with Russia, not behind its
5:55 back.
5:56 Politika, citing sources, writes that
5:57 the first day was devoted to security
5:59 guarantees and prisoner exchanges, and
6:01 on the second day, the discussion may
6:02 reach the issue of territories. This was
6:04 reprinted by both TASS and Vedomosti.
6:06 Now let's see how Kyiv responded to all
6:08 this.
6:09 In the evening, Zelenskyy called the
6:11 negotiations constructive and quite
6:13 substantive. He said that they discussed
6:15 guarantees, humanitarian issues,
6:17 prisoners, and de-escalation. But by
6:19 night, his tone had changed sharply.
6:22 Zelenskyy told journalists that Russian
6:23 military intelligence officers claimed
6:25 during the talks that they had already
6:27 occupied half of the part of Donbas
6:28 controlled by Ukraine.
6:30 And he stated that this was untrue and
6:32 that Putin is living in a different
6:33 reality.
6:34 There is an interesting point here.
6:37 If the Russian military really did put
6:39 their map and their forecast on the
6:41 table, they did exactly what a party
6:43 that has arguments should do.
6:46 They showed the picture as it is and
6:47 invited others to draw their own
6:49 conclusions. Zelenskyy's reaction is not
6:51 a refutation; it is the response of a
6:53 person who did not like the map.
6:55 At the same time, Zelenskyy reiterated
6:57 that Ukraine is not ready to give up
6:58 Donbas in exchange for an agreement and
7:00 that he would like to meet with Putin in
7:02 person.
7:03 Both phrases sound loud, but they do not
7:05 fit well together.
7:06 If you announce in advance that the main
7:08 issue is not up for discussion, then
7:09 what is there to talk about at a
7:11 personal meeting?
7:12 It seems that Zelenskyy needs the
7:13 meeting more as a photo opportunity. A
7:15 president who speaks to the Kremlin as
7:17 an equal, while the substance, as usual
7:19 , is secondary.
7:21 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha
7:23 announced that Kyiv had handed its
7:25 proposals for an energy and maritime
7:26 truce to partners and is awaiting
7:28 Moscow's response.
7:29 And this is perhaps the most honest
7:31 thing that has come from the Ukrainian
7:33 side in the last 24 hours.
7:35 Because an energy truce is needed
7:37 primarily by the one whose lights are
7:39 going out.
7:40 Moscow responded to this through Sergey
7:42 Lavrov, who spoke that same day in
7:44 Moscow at a collective security forum.
7:46 The essence of his words is as follows.
7:48 Europe is again trying to give Kyiv a
7:50 breather to rebuild its army.
7:52 Russia will not agree to another truce
7:54 without understanding what will happen
7:55 next.
7:56 First, clear security guarantees and
7:58 terms; only then, silence.
8:00 The difference seems technical, but in
8:02 reality, it is fundamental.
8:04 Kyiv and European capitals want to stop
8:06 the fire first, and then negotiate
8:07 everything else.
8:09 Moscow wants the opposite: first a major
8:12 agreement that ends the war entirely,
8:14 and only then a ceasefire.
8:16 A truce without an agreement is a pause
8:19 during which each side will rearm and
8:21 gather reserves.
8:22 That is precisely why Moscow does not
8:24 agree to such a pause.
8:26 And in Kyiv, they are clinging to it
8:28 because a pause allows them to wait for
8:30 new money, new weapons, and, if they are
8:31 lucky, new circumstances.
8:34 The logic is the same for the energy
8:36 truce proposed by Sybiha.
8:38 The "Two Majors" formulated it without
8:40 any diplomacy.
8:42 If strikes on the energy sector have
8:43 become painful for Kyiv, why should
8:45 Moscow give up one of its tools of
8:46 pressure without serious concessions in
8:48 return?
8:49 And right away, military correspondents
8:51 recall the grain deal. We’ve been
8:52 through this before, when a sea truce
8:54 turned out to be beneficial to only one
8:56 side.
8:56 So, Moscow’s response to Sybiha’s
8:58 proposal will most likely sound
9:00 something like this: we can discuss it,
9:02 but not separately, rather as part of a
9:03 general package.
9:05 By the way, Lavrov also responded to the
9:07 Europeans.
9:08 A journalist asked why they weren't
9:09 being allowed to the negotiating table,
9:11 given that they had all flown to Abu
9:12 Dhabi.
9:13 Lavrov answered with a question: are you
9:15 suggesting we shoot down planes?
9:16 And about those who arrived, he said
9:18 briefly: they can sit in their hotel.
9:20 Jokes aside, that phrase accurately
9:22 describes Europe's situation. The
9:24 Europeans arrived, but they weren't
9:25 invited into the hall.
9:27 What was Europe doing while sitting in
9:29 the hotel? It released a document.
9:32 The European Commission distributed a
9:34 joint statement agreed upon by Ukraine,
9:36 the US, the EU, Britain, France, Germany
9:39 , Italy, and NATO.
9:41 The main point in it is that a peace
9:43 agreement must guarantee Ukraine the
9:45 right to make its own decisions, plus
9:47 sovereignty, territorial integrity, and
9:49 reliable security guarantees. It sounds
9:51 solid.
9:52 Except Russia is not on the list.
9:54 This is a statement by one side about
9:56 how it would like to see peace.
9:58 But as we know, it takes both sides to
9:59 sign a peace deal.
10:01 The New York Times writes that Europeans
10:03 are still not ready for compromises that
10:05 affect NATO positions. And the media
10:07 reports this even more concisely. Europe
10:09 has once again become an obstacle to
10:10 peace.
10:11 The French newspaper Le Monde calls the
10:13 first day a deadlock, but immediately
10:15 lets slip what European diplomats are
10:17 actually afraid of.
10:18 They are afraid that the Trump
10:20 administration will push ceasefire
10:21 demands into the background for the sake
10:23 of a quick deal with Moscow.
10:25 In other words, they aren't afraid of a
10:26 deadlock; they are afraid that a deal
10:28 will be made without them.
10:29 While Europe sat in the hotel, Moscow
10:31 showed on that same day what its own
10:33 security architecture looks like.
10:36 In Moscow, the governing bodies of the
10:38 CSTO, foreign ministers, defense
10:40 ministers, and security council
10:41 secretaries held meetings.
10:43 Lavrov presided over the proceedings.
10:45 And in the evening at Novo-Ogaryovo,
10:46 Putin spoke for nearly 4 hours with
10:48 Lukashenko, who had arrived for the
10:50 summit.
10:51 Lukashenko thanked Putin for the
10:52 supplies of weaponry to the Belarusian
10:54 army.
10:55 And the next morning, something curious
10:56 happened.
10:57 Lukashenko suddenly proposed that Poland
10:59 make peace, resume dialogue, and abandon
11:01 mutual accusations.
11:03 After 4 hours in Novo-Ogaryovo, such
11:05 proposals are not made by accident.
11:07 It seems Minsk received a clear signal:
11:09 when a major conversation about European
11:11 security begins, it is better for
11:12 neighbors to reach an agreement rather
11:14 than exchange grievances.
11:16 There is, however, an empty chair as
11:17 well.
11:18 Armenia is not going to the summit.
11:20 Pashinyan will be at the UN climate
11:21 conference in Antalya that day.
11:24 Yerevan froze its participation in the
11:26 CSTO back in February 2024.
11:29 After the meeting, Lavrov noted that
11:31 Ukraine might try to punish states that
11:33 support Moscow.
11:34 The phrase is short, but the meaning is
11:36 clear. In the new architecture, everyone
11:38 will have their own place, and it will
11:39 have to be chosen in advance.
11:41 Meanwhile, as Europeans are drafting
11:43 statements, India is joining the line of
11:44 mediators.
11:46 Bloomberg writes that ahead of the
11:48 meeting, New Delhi held phone talks with
11:50 both Moscow and Kyiv, offering its
11:51 services.
11:53 The list of those wishing to help Russia
11:55 negotiate is growing, while the list of
11:57 those wanting to fight to the last
11:59 Ukrainian is shrinking.
12:01 The only thing where the sides seem to
12:03 have truly progressed is prisoners.
12:05 Zelenskyy said that a large exchange of
12:07 one thousand for one thousand or fifteen
12:09 hundred for fifteen hundred is being
12:10 discussed.
12:11 Gordon, citing sources, writes that the
12:13 details were discussed personally by
12:15 Budanov with members of the Russian
12:17 delegation. The "Two Majors" war
12:18 correspondents write that the mechanism
12:20 is already agreed upon and will take
12:21 place soon.
12:22 For scale, the previous exchange was on
12:25 October 23, when Ukraine returned 270
12:27 people.
12:28 One thousand for one thousand, nearly
12:30 four times more.
12:31 For thousands of families, this is the
12:32 biggest news of the day, and it is good
12:34 that at least here, the sides speak the
12:36 same language, literally and
12:37 figuratively.
12:38 The "Two Majors" explain why this point
12:40 is more important for Moscow than it
12:42 seems.
12:43 According to them, Russia has
12:44 accumulated a large number of Ukrainian
12:46 prisoners of war, and the task of
12:48 returning its own from Ukrainian
12:50 captivity remains.
12:51 It is no coincidence that the Russian
12:52 delegation included people of a very
12:54 serious level from the FSB. In addition
12:55 to Minaev, there is also Alexei Komkov,
12:57 whom the UN identifies as the head of
12:59 the Fifth Service.
13:00 The war correspondents 'conclusion is
13:02 simple: if we manage to get our people
13:03 out, it was worth talking for that
13:04 reason alone.
13:06 That is something hard to argue with
13:08 from any side.
13:09 Now about what was happening at the same
13:11 time outside the negotiation room,
13:13 because talks and strikes go in parallel
13:15 , and that is no coincidence. These are
13:17 two parts of the same conversation.
13:20 The Russian Ministry of Defense reports
13:22 that drones struck energy facilities
13:23 providing power to the Ukrainian
13:25 military industry and vessels with
13:26 military cargo last night.
13:29 Three electrical substations were hit.
13:31 The Ukrainian General Staff gives its
13:34 picture of the night: a Kh-59 or Kh-69
13:36 guided missile from the Black Sea and
13:39 163 attack drones.
13:41 Of those, 91 were jet-powered. That is a
13:43 word worth paying attention to:
13:45 jet-powered.
13:46 More than half of the Geran drones are
13:48 now flying on jet propulsion. Such a
13:50 craft is much faster than a standard one
13:51 ; it can only be shot down with a
13:53 missile or a special interceptor.
13:55 And as even sources sympathetic to Kyiv
13:57 write, Ukraine is running out of
13:59 missiles.
14:00 The Legitimniy channel claims that
14:02 Ukraine is currently receiving only
14:04 12-15 Patriot missiles and about 30
14:07 European IRIS-T and NASAMS. Simply
14:09 because the missiles are not there and
14:11 Europe's stockpiles are empty.
14:12 The overall picture matches what has
14:14 been discussed in the West for a long
14:15 time.
14:17 Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
14:18 admits that this autumn Russia has
14:20 significantly changed its tactics and is
14:22 striking different parts of the energy
14:24 system simultaneously.
14:26 The day before, Ukrenergo listed the
14:28 regions where strikes occurred: Kyiv,
14:31 Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk,
14:33 Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad.
14:36 That is almost the entire country. And
14:38 pay attention to the wording used by
14:40 Ukrenergo: "restriction schedules for
14:41 industry."
14:42 This means that factories are not
14:44 operating when needed, but only when
14:46 they are supplied with power.
14:49 For an economy already dependent on
14:51 Western loans, these are direct losses:
14:53 less production, fewer taxes, and fewer
14:55 jobs.
14:57 And for defense enterprises, which the
14:59 Russian Ministry of Defense claims are
15:00 the targets of these strikes, these are
15:02 missed deadlines.
15:03 So, every night with power outages hurts
15:05 more than just daily life.
15:07 It hits the country's ability to
15:09 continue fighting, and this is well
15:10 understood by everyone sitting at the
15:12 table in Abu Dhabi.
15:14 And here we return to Kyiv's bridges.
15:16 The Ukrainian outlet UNIAN is gathering
15:18 expert opinions from engineers on the
15:19 safety margin of the capital's bridges.
15:21 Experts warn that pontoon crossings
15:23 handle four times fewer vehicles and are
15:26 themselves vulnerable.
15:27 The country is asking directly whether
15:29 Kyiv will be divided in two.
15:31 When such questions are discussed not in
15:33 Moscow, but in Kyiv itself, it speaks
15:35 more to the current mood than any
15:36 official statements about resilience.
15:39 On the ground, there are no pauses
15:40 either.
15:41 The Ukrainian General Staff reports 125
15:43 combat engagements over the past 24
15:44 hours. The heaviest fighting is in the
15:46 Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk directions.
15:49 The Russian Ministry of Defense shows
15:51 operations in the neighboring Kramatorsk
15:53 direction, with "Msta-S" howitzers from
15:55 the "Yug" group striking Ukrainian drone
15:56 control centers.
15:58 Reports indicate that in the vicinity of
16:00 Druzhkivka, Russian intelligence is
16:02 finding such centers in the basements of
16:04 private houses almost every day.
16:06 Near Kupyansk, the Ukrainian side says
16:07 it is holding the city, while Russian
16:09 troops are exerting pressure from the
16:11 north.
16:12 Near Lyman, the sides describe the
16:13 fighting differently.
16:14 Rybar writes that the AFU offensive
16:16 there has changed direction, and the
16:18 Ukrainian 63rd Brigade complains that
16:20 Russian assault units are infiltrating
16:22 their positions in small groups and even
16:24 one by one.
16:25 In the Zaporizhzhia region, according to
16:27 War Gonzo, there is fighting near
16:28 Prymorske, Stepnohirsk, and in the
16:30 Huliaipole direction.
16:32 And the Ukrainian regional
16:34 administration admits that hundreds of
16:35 civilians still remain in the frontline
16:37 towns of Orikhiv, Huliaipole, and
16:38 Stepnohirsk, whom it is now almost
16:39 impossible to evacuate.
16:42 One more telling detail.
16:44 The Guardian writes that Ukrainians have
16:46 taken a serviceman from Indonesia
16:47 prisoner for the first time.
16:50 The Ukrainian "I Want to Live" project
16:52 claims that in just nine months of this
16:53 year, about 283 Indonesian citizens have
16:55 been recruited to the Russian side.
16:58 In Kyiv, this is presented as proof that
17:00 Russia is searching for personnel all
17:02 over the world.
17:04 But if you look at it differently, it
17:05 turns out that people willing to earn
17:07 money on the Russian side can be found
17:08 even on the other side of the world,
17:10 whereas those willing to fight for Kyiv
17:11 must be sought using completely
17:13 different methods.
17:14 Methods, by the way, are being discussed
17:16 more and more loudly within Ukraine
17:17 itself.
17:18 The 93rd Kholodny Yar Brigade has
17:20 launched a "Leave Your Home" campaign.
17:23 Its purpose, as the columnist writes, is
17:25 to talk to those who fear mobilization
17:27 most and change their perception of
17:29 service.
17:31 When the army has to persuade people to
17:32 simply step out of their apartments, it
17:34 speaks volumes about the mood on the
17:36 home front, more than any poll.
17:38 The "Legitimny" channel describes the
17:39 same problem without any diplomacy.
17:41 According to them, a man lost
17:42 consciousness on the North Bridge in
17:44 Kyiv when they tried to take him
17:46 directly off a bus.
17:48 Such stories appear in Ukrainian
17:49 channels almost every day. And Zelensky
17:51 himself acknowledges the connection.
17:53 According to him, a quick end to the war
17:55 would allow mobilization to slow down.
17:57 But no one is offering a quick end on
17:59 his terms.
18:00 With these strikes, Moscow is showing
18:02 that it has leverage, and this leverage
18:04 acts as an argument in negotiations.
18:07 The Russian delegation does not need to
18:09 lecture on geopolitics in Abu Dhabi.
18:12 It is enough that American
18:13 intermediaries see the same map of
18:15 outages as everyone else.
18:17 And the Americans, judging by their
18:19 conciliatory statements, see this map
18:20 perfectly well.
18:22 Kyiv, of course, is responding.
18:27 that 627 Ukrainian drones were shot down
18:29 or suppressed over Russian regions
18:31 overnight.
18:32 The list of regions is long—from
18:35 Belgorod and Kursk to the Leningrad,
18:37 Novgorod, Pskov, Kirov, Samara, and
18:39 Saratov regions.
18:41 In the Leningrad region, the Ust-Luga
18:43 port area caught fire after an attack,
18:44 leaving three workers injured.
18:46 The governor reported 141 drones shot
18:48 down over the region.
18:50 Lithuania declared its highest alert
18:52 level last night, and the "Two Majors"
18:53 channel views this as a hint at where
18:55 the drones were flying from.
18:57 The Russian Ministry of Defense has
18:58 summarized the week.
18:59 According to the ministry, about 8,200
19:01 munitions were fired at Russian
19:03 territory from November 2 to 8.
19:06 262 civilians were injured, 41 people
19:09 died, including three children.
19:12 The highest number of casualties
19:14 occurred in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk
19:15 , Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as
19:17 well as in Donetsk and Luhansk.
19:19 The Foreign Ministry separately lists
19:21 drone strikes on public buses in the
19:22 Luhansk Republic.
19:24 This is the part of the war about which
19:26 not a single word is written in European
19:27 statements on sovereignty and
19:29 territorial integrity.
19:30 The scale is impressive.
19:32 Abroad, each such strike is presented as
19:34 a strengthening of the negotiating
19:35 position.
19:36 Just look at how it is being presented.
19:40 Reuters, citing two anonymous industry
19:41 sources, writes that since the end of
19:43 October, Ukrainian attacks have reduced
19:45 Russian refinery capacity by
19:47 approximately 30 percent.
19:49 According to their data, nine out of the
19:51 thirty-five largest plants are under
19:53 attack.
19:54 Ukrainian publications have picked this
19:55 up with enthusiasm, and columnists are
19:57 already writing about gasoline shortages
19:58 in six Russian regions.
20:00 It would be strange to deny that the
20:02 strikes are being felt, and Russian war
20:04 correspondents are not doing so.
20:06 Those same "Two Majors" admit that
20:07 Ukrainian strikes on refineries are
20:09 making themselves felt, even leading to
20:11 new fuel sales restrictions for
20:12 individuals.
20:13 And in response to Russian strikes, they
20:15 hit back; Crimea, according to them, has
20:17 also been left without power.
20:18 In Crimea, as TASS reports, they even
20:20 stated they cannot warn people about
20:22 power outages in advance.
20:24 A war of cities is being fought on both
20:26 sides.
20:26 But, as those same war correspondents
20:28 write, for now, it is more of a problem
20:30 for Ukraine. Strikes on oil refining
20:32 definitely cause damage, but this damage
20:35 is tactical.
20:36 Moscow is rerouting logistics, finding
20:39 reserves, and continuing to do what it
20:41 was doing.
20:42 No one is planning to drop everything
20:43 and agree to any terms for the sake of a
20:45 few installations.
20:47 There is also another side to these
20:48 strikes, which those at Bankova Street
20:50 prefer not to think about.
20:51 Every drone that reaches the Leningrad
20:53 region is not just a strike against
20:56 It is also a signal to Trump, who wants
20:58 a deal.
20:59 And strikes on ports in the heat of
21:01 negotiations initiated by Washington are
21:02 hardly seen by the White House as
21:04 strengthening a position.
21:06 Rather, as a demonstration that Kyiv is
21:08 prepared to play its own game.
21:10 By the way, regarding equipment.
21:12 The Russian Defense Ministry has for the
21:14 first time included American AGM-188 "
21:16 Rusty Dagger" cruise missiles in its
21:17 interception report.
21:20 According to the agency, four such
21:21 missiles were shot down.
21:23 The Ukrainian outlet UNIAN writes that
21:25 the post was later deleted.
21:26 Neither Washington nor Kyiv has openly
21:29 admitted that Ukraine possesses such
21:32 If this is true, it means American
21:33 long-range weapons are already in play,
21:36 in parallel with talk of peace. Such is
21:38 the double bookkeeping.
21:40 Now, about what Kyiv is actually
21:42 counting on.
21:43 It is counting on Washington, just a
21:45 different Washington.
21:48 Republicans lost the midterm elections,
21:49 and the new Congress, where Democrats
21:51 will have the majority, will begin work
21:52 in January.
21:54 At Bankova Street, this was heard as
21:55 music. This means there will be money,
21:57 there will be weapons, and there is no
21:59 need to rush. But it is too early to
22:01 rejoice. Congress may allocate the money
22:02 , but it is the administration—that is,
22:04 Trump—that spends it.
22:05 How this works is visible even now.
22:08 Congressmen from both parties demanded
22:11 that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth
22:13 explain why the administration is
22:14 delaying $ 400 million for Ukraine's
22:16 security.
22:18 The money has been allocated, but it
22:19 isn't reaching Kyiv.
22:20 And Hegseth himself just survived an
22:22 impeachment attempt in the House of
22:23 Representatives. The grievances against
22:25 him stemmed from military operations in
22:27 Iran, Yemen, Venezuela, and the
22:29 Caribbean.
22:30 Trump came to his defense, the
22:31 impeachment was blocked, and Hegseth
22:33 called the whole thing a political show
22:36 In January, when the majority shifts,
22:38 they may return to this story.
22:40 But there are still two months until
22:42 January, and during this time, a lot can
22:43 be decided in the negotiations.
22:45 In Europe, things are also not as smooth
22:47 as Kyiv would like.
22:48 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz,
22:50 according to the Financial Times,
22:52 threatened to block the EU's seven-year
22:54 budget if the EU refuses to fund Ukraine
22:57 . This in itself speaks volumes.
22:59 If Germany has to threaten a veto to
23:01 squeeze out money for Kiev, it means
23:03 fewer and fewer people want to pay.
23:06 Rybar names the scale of the problem: a
23:08 direct 70 billion euro hole in Kiev, and
23:10 Berlin is blackmailing the entire EU
23:12 over it.
23:14 Meanwhile, in France, Marine Le Pen has
23:15 already attacked Macron’s "green law"
23:17 due to rising diesel prices.
23:19 The European voter is counting their own
23:21 expenses, not someone else's.
23:23 At the same time, Brussels is not
23:24 answering the question of how to end it
23:26 , but how to continue it.
23:28 The EU's training mission for the UAF,
23:30 according to Rybar, is being extended
23:32 until 2028, and Poddubny writes that
23:34 they intend to move the military
23:35 training of Ukrainian soldiers directly
23:37 onto Ukrainian territory.
23:40 In other words, the Europeans, who were
23:41 not allowed into the room, are planning
23:43 for the war to last two more years.
23:45 It is curious that at the same time,
23:47 according to Poddubny, London is seeking
23:49 contacts with Moscow just in case.
23:51 The British, it seems, understand better
23:53 than others which way the wind is
23:54 blowing.
23:55 And on top of that, Le Monde discovered
23:57 that the new sanctions package against
23:59 Russia was compiled with a bunch of
24:00 errors, even down to mixed-up names.
24:02 They were in such a rush that they
24:04 didn't even properly check the list.
24:06 Meanwhile, Zelensky himself was in
24:08 Copenhagen, where he met with the prime
24:10 ministers of Denmark, Norway, Sweden,
24:11 Finland, and Iceland, as well as
24:13 university students and defense
24:14 companies.
24:16 Northern Europe, as he writes, has
24:18 become a center of strength and
24:19 resilience for Ukraine. Aid is indeed
24:21 coming in.
24:22 Denmark has allocated another 20 million
24:24 euros for Ukraine's energy sector.
24:26 A donor conference in Paris raised 303
24:28 million euros for repairs to the
24:29 Chernobyl nuclear power plant's
24:31 containment dome.
24:33 South Korea, according to the Korean
24:34 press, has earmarked 100 million dollars
24:36 in its budget for next year, despite the
24:38 diplomatic scandal over North Korean
24:40 prisoners.
24:42 But pay attention to the amounts.
24:44 20 million here, 100 million there. For
24:47 a country whose substations are being
24:48 knocked out every night, this is not a
24:50 reconstruction plan, it’s just patches.
24:52 Rebuilding what has been destroyed will
24:54 take years, and these tranches won't get
24:56 it done.
24:57 The atmosphere in Europe itself is also
24:59 telling. Three spy stories in just one
25:02 In the UK, as reported by London police
25:04 , a US service member was arrested on
25:07 suspicion of spying for Russia.
25:09 In Poland, two Ukrainian citizens were
25:11 detained on suspicion of espionage and
25:13 sabotage, also allegedly ordered by
25:15 Moscow.
25:16 And the FSB, for its part, reported that
25:18 it had uncovered a Polish intelligence
25:19 network in the Kaliningrad region and
25:21 detained two agents.
25:23 Europe is living in a state where it
25:25 sees an agent in every neighbor.
25:27 And in such a state, it is very
25:28 difficult for them to offer anything
25:30 constructive at the negotiating table,
25:31 even if they were invited.
25:33 It’s the same story with weapons. Poland
25:35 and the MiG-29s. Two contradictory
25:37 reports in a single evening. RBC Ukraine
25:40 writes that, according to the Polish
25:42 side, Ukraine will transfer anti-drone
25:44 technology to Poland and receive fighter
25:46 jets in return.
25:48 Readovka writes that Warsaw, on the
25:50 contrary, has decided to send those MiGs
25:52 for scrapping.
25:53 But the very fact that fighters for an
25:55 ally have to be bartered for technology
25:57 quite clearly shows what brotherly aid
25:59 looks like today.
26:01 And inside Ukraine itself, a quiet story
26:03 is unfolding these days.
26:05 The Resident channel writes that sources
26:07 on Bankova link the pressure from
26:09 anti-corruption bodies NABU and SAPO on
26:11 Zelensky's circle to the negotiations.
26:13 According to the channel, the data for
26:15 the anti-corruption officials came again
26:17 from American intelligence, which is
26:18 greatly unnerving the President's Office
26:20 and security officials in Zelensky's
26:22 inner circle.
26:23 The same Resident writes that Bankova
26:25 was extremely jealous of the fact that
26:27 Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets suddenly
26:29 became a prominent international figure
26:31 after his humanitarian mission meetings
26:34 The Resident writes even more harshly
26:35 about Zelensky himself.
26:36 According to the channel, he is becoming
26:38 the main obstacle for the Trump
26:40 administration.
26:41 And this is evident in every new NABU
26:43 case.
26:44 And a source for the channel on Bankova
26:46 calls the resumption of trilateral
26:47 meetings a victory for Budanov, who is
26:49 pushing for peace initiatives within the
26:51 President's Office.
26:52 If this is the case, then there is not
26:54 just one line in the President's Office
26:56 now, but at least two.
26:57 Against this background, the story of
26:59 SBU Major General Serhiy Duka, who is
27:01 suspected of involvement with the
27:03 Khimprom criminal group, stands out.
27:05 The general issued an open letter.
27:08 He does not deny contacts with Khimprom
27:09 , but suggests viewing them as
27:11 operational work and demands a
27:12 parliamentary investigation into the
27:14 actions of the NABU and SAPO leadership
27:17 The Resident notes that this turn of
27:18 events is advantageous for the
27:19 President's Office. Instead of the
27:21 question of whether SBU officers covered
27:22 for criminals, another question is being
27:24 discussed—do anti-corruption officials
27:26 have the right to interfere in the work
27:27 of intelligence agencies during a war?
27:30 A scandal about possible criminal
27:31 patronage is turning into a campaign
27:33 about defending statehood. Convenient.
27:36 Only the army, which is sitting in the
27:37 trenches, looks at such stories
27:39 completely differently than Bankova does
27:41 A curious picture is emerging.
27:43 While the delegation is in Abu Dhabi,
27:45 Zelensky is conducting a quiet test of
27:47 the durability of everyone dependent on
27:49 him back home.
27:50 The same Legitimny offers its own
27:52 explanation for why Kyiv and Europe are
27:53 dragging their feet at all.
27:55 According to the channel, Europe,
27:57 Britain, Canada, and Zelensky want to
27:59 drag out the war until 2030, until
28:01 Russia’s presidential elections, in the
28:04 hope that a power struggle will begin in
28:06 Moscow by then.
28:07 And the logic here is interesting.
28:09 If Kyiv's strategy is indeed to outlast
28:11 the situation, then every month of
28:13 waiting is not being paid for in
28:15 Brussels or London.
28:17 It is being paid for by substations in
28:19 Kryvyi Rih, lights in Odesa, and people
28:20 being caught at bridges.
28:22 There is another piece of news that well
28:24 illustrates how relations between Kyiv
28:26 and Washington are structured.
28:28 The Axios portal writes that after Abu
28:30 Dhabi, Yermak and Kushner may come to
28:31 Kyiv again.
28:33 If this happens, it won't be to listen
28:35 to more stories about victory.
28:37 American intermediaries arrive when they
28:39 need to convey something personally and
28:41 without witnesses. And, of course, what
28:43 kind of day would it be without a
28:45 sensation from Dmitry Gordon?
28:46 On the evening of November 10, Gordon
28:48 released a stream with the sensational
28:50 headline: "Sensational inside info from
28:52 Abu Dhabi: Putin's readiness for peace.
28:53 " What exactly this inside info is,
28:55 Gordon does not reveal in the
28:56 announcement.
28:57 But the genre has been perfected to a
28:59 tee.
29:00 Go live, hint at sources in high offices
29:02 , promise a sensation, and a month later
29:04 , when things turn out differently,
29:06 release a new one.
29:08 The funniest thing is that the real news
29:10 from Abu Dhabi was reported that same
29:12 evening by Kushner, and no inside info
29:13 was needed for that. Putin is ready for
29:15 peace under the proper conditions.
29:18 Only for some reason, Gordon doesn't
29:19 like to talk about the conditions. So,
29:21 what is the bottom line?
29:22 In Abu Dhabi, they are discussing not so
29:25 much Ukraine, but how Russia and Europe
29:27 will live.
29:28 A NATO general was invited to this
29:29 conversation, but European ministers
29:31 were not.
29:32 The Americans listened to the Russian
29:34 conditions and called the conversation
29:35 productive. Moscow has shown that it
29:38 will not pause until there is a major
29:40 agreement.
29:41 And Kyiv, which faces blackouts in Odesa
29:43 and Kryvyi Rih and traffic jams at
29:45 bridges in the capital, is asking for an
29:47 energy truce and waiting for money from
29:49 a Congress that will only begin work in
29:51 January.
29:52 The only concrete result of the first
29:54 day is a prisoner exchange.
29:56 And, if it happens, for thousands of
29:58 families this will be the best news in a
30:00 long time.
30:01 "Two Majors" summed up the first day
30:03 like this. Abu Dhabi is a
30:04 synchronization of watches, a testing of
30:06 positions, and negotiations on how to
30:08 conduct further negotiations.
30:10 Moscow demands territories, restrictions
30:12 on the Ukrainian army, and guarantees of
30:14 its own security.
30:16 Ukraine demands an end to the war and
30:18 guarantees that it will not start again
30:21 Europe is trying to muscle its way into
30:22 the talks, while the Americans,
30:24 according to war correspondents, want to
30:25 exit the Ukrainian story and claim peace
30:27 as an asset after their election loss.
30:30 Everyone is talking about peace, but
30:31 everyone has a completely different
30:32 future in mind.
30:34 For Kyiv in this picture, the main
30:35 problem is one thing: time.
30:37 Every month of waiting costs substations
30:39 ; the neighbor's refineries aren't
30:40 adding any light in Odesa, and the new
30:42 Congress's money won't arrive until at
30:44 least January.
30:45 And via Trump himself at that. Europe is
30:47 extending its training mission until
30:49 2028, but it is haggling over every
30:51 single billion.
30:52 And the negotiations on how Russia and
30:54 Europe will live are happening right now
30:56 , with Kyiv relegated to the role of an
30:58 agenda item, not an author.
31:00 Today at 11:00 Moscow time, the second
31:02 day begins.
31:03 According to Politico, they may get to
31:05 the territory issue, and the Russian
31:06 delegation promises to speak with
31:08 journalists for the first time.
31:10 And that is when it will become clear
31:12 how far Washington is willing to go and
31:13 how many more months Kyiv intends to "
31:15 win" in negotiations while losing them
31:17 within its own country.
Judged by claude-sonnet-5.5-eu on 2026-11-14 18:20 UTC. A flag means “worth a look”; a person decides.