0:00 Western sanctions didn't break Russia's
0:02 banking system. But Vladimir Putin, he
0:04 just did it from the inside. This week,
0:07 the head of Russia's second largest bank
0:09 publicly begged regulators to shut down
0:12 his rivals. Even loyal insiders are
0:15 panicking because the math no longer
0:17 works. Bad loans across the system has
0:20 surged to 13%. Bank savers have already
0:24 pulled out $ 36.2 billion from the
0:28 vaults. Meanwhile, up to 50% of Russia's
0:31 remaining banks face closure under
0:33 looming capital rules. Oil and gas
0:35 windfalls used to rescue state lenders.
0:38 But today, those energy cash cows are
0:40 running dry. So, Moscow has quietly
0:43 started draining money through the back
0:45 door. Personal bank transfers are being
0:48 wired straight to the tax police. Seized
0:50 Western companies are being stripped to
0:52 plug state deficits. Vladimir Putin
0:55 doesn't need to freeze bank accounts.
0:57 The silent cash grab has already
0:59 started. My name is Dr. Jason Smart. I'm
1:01 a key chief special correspondent,
1:03 national security adviser. Now, we're
1:05 watching something very interesting as
1:06 Russia's second largest state bank wants
1:08 Moscow to shut down more of its
1:11 competitors. VTB chief Andre Costin, he
1:15 admits that Russian lenders are having
1:17 an extremely difficult time. Russians
1:19 have withdrawn roughly $ 36 billion in
1:22 cash from the banks just this year.
1:25 Meanwhile, some corporate loan
1:27 portfolios have troubled debts reaching
1:30 13%. But there is a general fear in the
1:33 society of something much bigger. And
1:35 that fear, the one that is gripping the
1:37 people of Russia, is a fear that
1:39 depositors could have their money frozen
1:41 in the banks by Vladimir Putin who will
1:43 take it in order to finance their war.
1:45 This is not just some sort of a far out
1:47 fantasy. This is something very real.
1:49 We've already heard lots of comments
1:51 about it coming from the central bank,
1:53 from members of parliament, and even
1:55 from Vladimir Putin. But right now, the
1:57 central bank is already looking at
1:59 closing down some of the smaller
2:01 institutions. They say that there's not
2:03 enough capital for them. But let's put
2:05 this in comparison. What is really going
2:07 on inside of Russia? And if that answer
2:09 really makes sense, consider this. In
2:11 the early 2010s, Russia had more than
2:14 900 credit institutions. Today there are
2:18 around 300, roughly onethird as many.
2:21 Now after the planned closure of more
2:23 banks, it's anticipated there will only
2:28 146 left. That's quite a loss of banks
2:32 losing a half of what they already had.
2:35 But let's consider something else that
2:36 just happened and perhaps that's the
2:37 real reason that we were seeing this.
2:39 For one, you might recall we heard the
2:41 head of Spear Bank of Russia. Of course,
2:43 Spearbach is 50% plus one owned by the
2:46 Russian government. Well, Spearbach
2:47 today we is in a very hard situation.
2:50 Such a situation that its top guy has
2:53 said that it might be necessary for
2:54 Russia to close all the banks except for
2:56 the top 20. Now, of course, he phrased
2:58 it differently. He said that Russians
3:00 have nothing to fear. If there's only
3:02 the top 20 banks left, it might be
3:04 better for everybody. But now, we hear
3:06 the number two bank saying the same
3:08 thing. Now, this number two bank, VTB,
3:10 there's a reason we've discussed it
3:12 plenty of times before, and that's
3:13 because it's out of money. VTB Bank, has
3:16 billions of dollars of loans they gave
3:18 to Wildberries, and those loans, well,
3:21 they probably will not be repaid anytime
3:23 soon. Even before Ukraine began to
3:25 regularly attack Wildberries,
3:27 Wildberries was already not paying its
3:29 debts on time. It's already having huge
3:31 financial problems. And VTB Bank is
3:33 already struggling to keep up with the
3:35 depositors who are taking out their
3:37 money. Overall, the bank is in a very
3:40 bad economic situation. One that's so
3:42 bad, the only hope they have of fixing
3:44 the situation is if we saw more capital
3:47 come into it. But what a better way to
3:49 do that than this to justify under a new
3:52 law to close down the smaller banks.
3:54 That forces more money into your bank
3:56 and thus gives you operating capital
3:57 that you need. Now, this is all the
3:59 slight of hand that is typical in
4:01 Russia. They say one thing but do
4:03 something different or do it for a
4:04 purpose that's completely different from
4:06 the one that they're publicly telling
4:07 you. The Spear Bank of Russia, it's in a
4:09 similar situation. Now, Spearbank
4:12 recently was forced to give dividends to
4:14 its shareholders early. Now, why is
4:16 they're giving dividends so early in the
4:18 year? Well, it's because the Russian
4:19 government today needs its dividends. It
4:21 needs the cash it would derive from
4:23 that. So now it's pushing all of its
4:25 stateowned companies to pay out
4:27 dividends before the end of the year.
4:29 Now that's not typical. Typically like
4:31 shareholders typically do, they wait for
4:33 the end of the fiscal year and then they
4:34 get their payouts. They don't just get
4:36 them whenever the government starts
4:37 demanding them. But today the government
4:39 it's demanding them because the
4:41 government cannot continue without more
4:43 money. But there's another aspect here
4:46 that is typically left out which is very
4:48 important to note and it's a much darker
4:50 story. Uh what we see is that Russian
4:52 banks, they claim that they are doing
4:54 very well. In fact, they reported about
4:55 $46 billion in profits over the first 9
4:59 months of this year. So 46 billion, how
5:02 could I possibly argue that the banks
5:04 are having problems? Well, let's
5:05 consider this. They also carried roughly
5:08 $89 billion in problem corporate loans.
5:11 The loans that lacked adequate
5:13 provisions or collateral. That exposure
5:15 is almost twice the reported profits. It
5:18 also amounts to roughly 70% of the
5:20 bank's capital above the regulatory
5:23 minimums. Altogether, this shows that
5:25 Russia, its banks are not doing very
5:27 well. In fact, they're doing very, very
5:29 not well. Now, earlier this year, I was
5:32 sort of surprised to read in the press
5:33 that the Russian banks, they reported
5:35 $46 billion in profits during the first
5:38 9 months of 2026. And that is something
5:41 though that left out a very important
5:43 detail. their balance sheets. They hid a
5:46 severe debt problem. In fact, those same
5:49 banks are holding roughly $89 billion in
5:52 troubled corporate loans, specifically
5:54 the loans without enough cash reserves
5:57 or collateral to cover them. That bad
5:59 debt is nearly double the reported
6:02 profits of the banks. It also equals
6:04 about 70% of the capital banks hold
6:07 above the regulatory minimums. So today,
6:09 those banks are needing to hide their
6:11 losses to restructure the loans to
6:14 somehow show that they're not insolvent.
6:17 But household savings data, it also
6:18 shows how ordinary Russians are
6:20 responding to this. Between January and
6:23 September, small bank deposits shrank by
6:25 8%. Even though the total number of
6:27 account holders barely changed. When I
6:30 investigated that further, I found out
6:32 why that really was. There has been a
6:34 surge in deposits from wealthy clients.
6:36 And it hides the fact that ordinary
6:38 working families are draining their
6:40 accounts. Real disposable income growth
6:42 has dropped from 8% to 3% losing nearly
6:45 2/3 of its momentum. Meanwhile, utility
6:48 bills have risen over 13%. Today,
6:51 families simply have less cash in
6:54 Russia. According to Russia and its
6:56 survey it's done its own population, 30%
6:59 of Russians spent more than they earned
7:02 over the past year. Today, 74% of
7:04 Russians say they cut down the amount of
7:07 food that they eat and the food that
7:08 they buy. They don't have enough money.
7:12 It's a pretty good sign of how bad the
7:13 situation really is despite the official
7:16 notices that come out. But look in the
7:18 regions of Russia. Look at Yukia.
7:20 Workers across 17 of 28 state utility
7:23 branches. They reported major wage
7:26 delays. So you have the government of a
7:28 state of Russia. They're not paying its
7:31 people. Not paying people who work for
7:32 the government. The government, it
7:34 always gets paid, but not anymore in
7:36 Russia. Some employees said that they're
7:37 working 12-hour shifts while borrowing
7:40 money from relatives to be able to buy
7:42 food. So when state workers go unpaid,
7:45 that's probably a very good sign of
7:46 their real situation. Now, Yakutia is
7:49 facing a reported regional budget
7:50 deficit of roughly $155 million. And
7:54 according to local lawmakers there,
7:56 that's the result of the local people.
7:59 It has nothing to do with the fact that
8:00 the government is running out of money.
8:02 Now, keep in mind, today the government
8:04 at the local level is spending
8:06 incredible sums of money for people to
8:08 join the military. They're spending up
8:10 to $42,000 as a sign bonus in addition
8:13 to a monthly income of roughly $8,000.
8:17 So, who here is really to blame for the
8:18 inordinate spending? The workers getting
8:20 paid $500 a month or the sign on bonuses
8:23 of $42,000 for somebody who
8:25 statistically will only survive 20 to 35
8:28 minutes once they get to the front. If
8:30 you're just joining us, make sure that
8:32 you please subscribe now and to like
8:33 this video, share with others, and
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8:36 Check out the first pin comment, subst
8:38 article, and a link of how YouTube can
8:40 help the Ukrainian soldiers. Thank you.
8:42 So overall, let's look at a different
8:44 sector of Russia and see if this is
8:46 universal or these are outliers. Well,
8:48 look at the builders of Russia. They
8:50 always have contracts to the government.
8:51 The infrastructure of Russia, it's
8:53 massive. Russia, it's got 11 time zones.
8:55 It needs lots of infrastructure. But
8:58 look at the sector that deals with the
9:00 railways. The railways of Russia today
9:01 have a debt of about $52 billion.
9:05 That is an incredible sum of money.
9:07 That's more than they'll ever be able to
9:09 pay off. But let's look at the roads.
9:11 How are the roads doing within Russia?
9:13 Well, there we see things are not
9:15 looking very good. Overdue debt across
9:17 22 major infrastructure firms, it more
9:20 than doubled. Today, it's roughly $110
9:24 Today, there's in fact an upsurge of
9:27 insolveny, of bankruptcy, and those who
9:30 used to do government work because the
9:32 government today it doesn't pay its
9:34 bills on time. And today, the government
9:36 is not able to raise more capital. Keep
9:38 in mind, we've discussed before,
9:40 including yesterday, what is going on
9:41 right now in the oil industry, why it's
9:43 making it harder and harder for the
9:44 Russian government to keep it all
9:46 together. But when it get you look at
9:48 the deeper side of economics, you
9:50 realize it's about to get much, much
9:52 worse. Consider this. In September, the
9:55 finance ministry issued roughly $17
9:57 billion in new government bonds. Russian
10:00 banks, they bought 77% of that issuance,
10:03 about $13 billion. That exact same
10:07 month, those banks borrowed an extra $21
10:09 billion from the central bank. By the
10:11 end of September, commercial banks owed
10:14 the central bank roughly $104 billion.
10:18 What this is is a loop. And here's how
10:20 it works in practice. Every ruble banks
10:23 spend on government bonds is a ruble
10:25 they cannot lend to the private
10:26 businesses. Banks then hand those
10:29 government bonds over to the central
10:30 bank as collateral for short-term cash.
10:33 In effect, the finance ministry borrows
10:35 from commercial banks, which immediately
10:36 borrow from the central bank to stay
10:38 liquid. The entire system stays afloat
10:41 only if the central bank keeps pumping
10:43 in cash without triggering runaway
10:46 inflation. But today, that's not a very
10:48 good situation because that means that
10:50 central bank is trapped with no good
10:52 policy options. Keeping interest rates
10:55 high crushes businesses and triggers
10:57 more corporate defaults. And just a
10:59 couple hours ago, we heard the central
11:00 bank will keep the interest rates where
11:02 they currently are 14%. It will not move
11:05 them down before at least February 2027.
11:09 But overall, the federal deficit of
11:10 Russia has already reached $63 billion,
11:13 38% higher than the government's
11:15 original deficit target for the entire
11:17 year. And overall, we're watching the
11:19 finance ministry has since raised its
11:21 fullear deficit forecast to about $89
11:24 billion. All this is translating to
11:26 losses on the front which seems the
11:28 soldiers for Russia they've complained
11:30 that they have a lack of basic goods.
11:32 Today the government is not able to
11:34 deliver to them things like equipment
11:37 things like replenishment or food even
11:40 in fact there's been a problem of hunger
11:42 in the Russian military. Listen, when
11:44 you look at this, you think about the
11:45 battlefield, what is likely to happen
11:47 next in Ukraine, a country where Russia
11:51 soldiers just in October, averaging
11:54 1,750 a day. Imagine what that's going
11:57 to look like in a few weeks as the Trish
11:59 rate continues to grow and Russia has to
12:01 pay more bonuses of $42,000 for
12:05 everybody who signs up. In no case does
12:07 this work out well for Russia. In all
12:09 cases, this is a catastrophe. Uh but the
12:12 best part about this catastrophe, it's
12:14 one that Russia is walking into
12:15 willingly due to the arrogance of
12:17 Vladimir Putin, his inability to accept
12:19 that Russia is losing. It's about to
12:21 cost Russia big and the Russian economy
12:24 be the first thing that we see fall out.
12:26 Check out this video to see why. As
12:28 always, thank you for supporting