0:00 Reporting for Europe Daily Brief.
0:02 On Friday, the White House confirmed
0:04 something that is never happened before.
0:06 Next Thursday in the Chinese city of
0:08 Shenzhen, the leaders of the United
0:10 States, Russia, and China will sit down
0:12 together in the same room.
0:14 Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi
0:16 Jinping will hold the first ever
0:18 three-way meeting of the three
0:21 Nuclear weapons will be on the agenda.
0:23 So will the war in Iran. Ukraine will
0:25 not. And on the very same day, Europe
0:28 named its own team for the Ukraine talks
0:30 in Dublin. The confirmation came on
0:32 Friday the 13th of November from the
0:34 White House. Assistant Press Secretary
0:37 Olivia Wales told reporters that
0:38 President Trump will conclude his visit
0:40 to China with a trilateral meeting
0:42 between the President of the United
0:44 States, the President of the People's
0:45 Republic of China, and the President of
0:50 That is the formal language. In plain
0:52 terms, the three most powerful nuclear
0:54 states on Earth will meet face-to-face
0:57 together for the first time. The meeting
0:59 will take place on Thursday the 19th of
1:01 November on the sidelines of the
1:03 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit
1:05 in Shenzhen, which runs from the 18th to
1:07 the 19th of November with Xi Jinping
1:10 hosting and chairing the gathering.
1:12 Shenzhen is China's great technology
1:14 hub. The summit is Xi Jinping's stage,
1:17 and the two most powerful visitors in
1:18 the world are coming to his city on his
1:22 So what will they talk about?
1:24 The White House says President Trump
1:25 wants to talk about reducing nuclear
1:27 arsenals. Wales said the President
1:29 considers nuclear weapons very dangerous
1:31 and that reducing them is among the
1:33 topics he will raise. But the
1:35 administration is setting expectations
1:38 A senior American officer told reporters
1:40 in the words carried by the Associated
1:42 Press and Reuters, we do not expect to
1:44 get to any kind of agreement. The
1:46 meeting is an entry point, not a deal.
1:49 The nuclear question matters now because
1:51 the guard rails are gone. The last
1:53 treaty limiting American and Russian
1:54 nuclear weapons, known as New START,
1:57 expired on the 5th of February of this
1:59 It had capped each side at 1,550
2:02 deployed strategic warheads, and it
2:04 allowed inspections on the ground.
2:07 With it gone, for the first time in more
2:08 than 50 years, there are no binding
2:11 limits on the two largest nuclear
2:12 arsenals in the world. But there is a
2:14 problem at the heart of the idea, and it
2:18 The United States and Russia each hold
2:20 more than 5,000 nuclear warheads in
2:22 total, according to Pentagon estimates.
2:25 China holds about 600.
2:27 Beijing has long been reluctant to
2:28 discuss limits on its stockpile
2:30 alongside two countries whose arsenals
2:32 are many times larger. And analysts say
2:35 a three-way cap is an unlikely prospect
2:39 President Trump has spoken for years
2:41 about a three-way nuclear deal.
2:43 The gap in the numbers is why it has
2:44 never happened. The second item on the
2:46 agenda is the war in Iran.
2:49 A senior American official told the
2:50 Associated Press that President Trump
2:52 plans to raise the war in Iran with both
2:54 Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
2:57 The White House has not spelled out what
2:59 it wants from either leader on Iran.
3:01 What is clear is that the president
3:02 intends to use the room for it.
3:05 Iran is a subject on which Washington,
3:07 Moscow, and Beijing have very different
3:09 interests and very different
3:10 relationships with Tehran.
3:12 And then there is the subject that will
3:14 not be discussed, at least according to
3:17 The same senior American official said
3:19 President Trump does not plan to discuss
3:21 the war in Ukraine with Xi Jinping and
3:23 Vladimir Putin in China.
3:25 The official's explanation, as reported
3:27 by the Associated Press, was that China
3:29 is not really a part of that track, so
3:32 it does not seem appropriate to have the
3:33 Ukraine discussion there.
3:35 In the American view, the Ukraine
3:37 negotiations run on a separate track
3:39 through the envoys shuttling between
3:41 Moscow, Abu Dhabi, and Dublin. But
3:43 Moscow is telling a different story, and
3:46 that is where the tension begins.
3:48 Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on
3:50 Thursday the 12th of November that
3:52 President Putin will discuss the whole
3:53 picture on ending the conflict in
3:55 Ukraine with President Trump at the
3:57 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
4:00 Ushakov said the discussion of the full
4:02 range of issues related to a settlement
4:04 will continue during the planned meeting
4:07 No representatives from Ukraine or
4:09 Europe will take part.
4:11 Washington says Ukraine is not on the
4:14 Moscow says its president will raise it.
4:16 In Kiev, that contradiction is exactly
4:18 what worries people.
4:20 President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned
4:22 that the summit could become a place to
4:23 discuss a deal on Ukraine without Kiev
4:27 He has said there is no question of
4:28 deciding anything about Ukraine without
4:32 Edgar Kagan, a former American
4:34 ambassador to Malaysia, who is now at
4:36 the Center for Strategic and
4:37 International Studies,
4:39 said President Putin wants to signal
4:40 that big decisions on Ukraine are being
4:42 made in rooms like this one,
4:44 and that Ukrainians and Europeans will
4:48 Some have reached for a historical
4:49 comparison, and it is a loaded one.
4:52 Commentators have compared the planned
4:53 meeting to the Yalta Conference of 1945,
4:56 when the leaders of the United States,
4:58 Britain, and the Soviet Union redrew the
5:02 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has
5:04 rejected the comparison.
5:06 He said any understanding reached in
5:07 Shenzhen could not be forced on others,
5:10 and that global order should rest on
5:12 mutual respect and benefit.
5:14 The comparison itself tells you what is
5:17 Before Shenzhen, there is a journey, and
5:19 the journey itself tells a story.
5:22 President Trump will leave Washington on
5:23 Monday, the 16th of November.
5:25 He arrives in the Philippines on
5:27 Tuesday, the 17th for a summit of the
5:29 Association of Southeast Asian Nations,
5:32 where he will attend a special summit
5:33 between the United States and the
5:36 and hold a bilateral meeting with
5:37 President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
5:40 He will land in Manila late in the day
5:42 and then fly on to China.
5:44 In Shenzhen, he is scheduled to attend
5:45 an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
5:48 Leaders Dinner, and on Thursday, he will
5:50 hold a bilateral meeting and a working
5:51 lunch with Xi Jinping before the
5:54 three-way meeting later in the day.
5:56 No separate one-on-one meeting between
5:58 President Trump and President Putin is
6:00 scheduled in Shenzhen.
6:01 The trilateral meeting is the meeting
6:03 with President Putin.
6:04 Details of the format and venue have not
6:06 been released. We do not know how long
6:08 they will sit together or whether they
6:10 will speak to reporters afterwards.
6:12 That bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping
6:14 matters in its own right.
6:16 The two leaders met in Beijing in May
6:18 and in Washington in September, and
6:20 Shenzhen will be their latest meeting
6:21 since President Trump returned to power.
6:24 Trade is expected to feature heavily,
6:26 including whether to extend a trade
6:28 truce between the two countries that
6:29 runs through January of next year.
6:32 For Xi Jinping, Shenzhen is a home game.
6:35 He chairs the meeting, he sets the tone,
6:37 and the summit itself is his to run. To
6:40 understand why this week matters so
6:41 much, you have to go back just a few
6:45 On the 10th and 11th of November,
6:47 Russian, Ukrainian, and American
6:49 negotiators held two days of trilateral
6:51 talks in the United Arab Emirates, the
6:53 first of their kind since February.
6:56 The talks ended with no breakthrough on
6:57 territory, but they did produce one
6:59 thing. A large-scale prisoner exchange
7:02 was agreed in principle, reported at
7:04 1,000 to 1,500 prisoners from each side
7:08 and expected within two to three weeks.
7:10 The number has not been finalized.
7:12 Behind those talks sits a document that
7:14 has shadowed everything since.
7:16 A 28-point plan has been reported under
7:18 which Ukraine would cede land and
7:20 renounce its ambition to join the North
7:22 Atlantic Treaty Organization.
7:24 We stress that this is a reported plan
7:26 only. It is not been agreed, it is not
7:29 been signed, and Kyiv has not accepted
7:32 But its existence shapes the fear in
7:35 If such a plan is circulating, then a
7:37 meeting in Shenzhen without Ukraine and
7:39 without Europe looks like the place
7:41 where it could be discussed. That fear
7:43 is the reason Europe moved first. On the
7:46 very day the Shenzhen meeting was
7:47 confirmed in Dublin on Friday the 13th
7:50 of November, European Council President
7:52 Antonio Costa announced that Europe has
7:55 named its own team for the next round of
7:58 The team will be the institutions of the
8:00 European Union plus five countries, the
8:02 United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy,
8:06 and Poland, the five members of the
8:08 coalition of the willing that backs
8:10 Costa told a news conference that Europe
8:12 must speak with one clear voice and
8:15 united voice in all discussions that
8:17 shape the future of Ukraine and the
8:19 security of our continent. The German
8:21 chancellor made the anxiety plain.
8:23 Friedrich Merz pleaded on Friday for
8:25 President Trump to create no surprises
8:27 during the expected talks with President
8:29 Putin in China next week.
8:31 His words, as reported by Al Jazeera and
8:33 the news agencies, were direct. Please,
8:36 no surprises. Continue to play as part
8:38 of team Europe and team Ukraine.
8:41 Merz said some in Dublin fear a second
8:43 anchorage moment, a reference to the
8:45 Alaska summit where European leaders
8:47 were stunned by President Trump's
8:48 overtures to the Russian leader without
8:50 Ukrainian or European envoys present.
8:53 Inside the European institutions, the
8:55 argument about who speaks for Europe is
8:58 The European Union's top diplomat, Kaja
9:01 Kallas, laid claim to the envoy role on
9:03 Friday, telling reporters, I am the one
9:05 who is representing Europe in the
9:07 foreign and security policy.
9:09 She added that it is not up to Russia to
9:11 say who should represent the European
9:12 Union, and she noted that the Russians
9:15 do not want her in the role.
9:17 Al Jazeera's reporting from Dublin also
9:19 noted that there is not unanimous
9:20 support behind her, with many seeing her
9:22 as uncompromising on Russia. Moscow, for
9:25 its part, has not accepted the European
9:27 team. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
9:30 said on Friday that Moscow must first
9:32 understand the Europeans' intentions and
9:34 their readiness to contribute to peace
9:36 before deciding on talks in an expanded
9:39 He added that President Putin has never
9:41 refused to engage with the Europeans and
9:43 that if the Europeans truly have someone
9:45 authorized to hold discussions, Moscow
9:47 would be prepared to talk with that.
9:49 But no decision has been made and no
9:52 concrete discussions have taken place.
9:54 Europe has picked its team, the Kremlin
9:56 has said. In effect, we will see. The
9:59 American envoys are caught in the middle
10:01 of that argument. In Moscow on Thursday,
10:04 Jared Kushner said he had begun
10:05 discussions with European partners on
10:07 Europe's security architecture, the
10:09 framework for how the continent will be
10:11 defended after any settlement.
10:13 Kushner also made a striking admission
10:16 He said that if Europe could identify
10:18 one person to speak on their behalf,
10:20 that would be a bigger achievement than
10:21 getting the Russians to include them in
10:24 After years of war, the hardest problem
10:27 may not be Russia. It may be Europe
10:29 agreeing on one voice.
10:31 That is why the Shenzhen meeting
10:32 frightens European capitals, even though
10:34 Ukraine is not on its agenda.
10:37 The fear is about precedent.
10:38 If the three leaders can meet to discuss
10:40 nuclear weapons and the war in Iran,
10:42 then the format exists, the photograph
10:44 exists, and the habit exists.
10:47 The next time, the subject could be
10:49 Ukraine, and the same three leaders
10:51 could be in the same room again without
10:53 Kyiv and again without Europe.
10:56 German Chancellor Friedrich Merz put the
10:57 European red line in Dublin. There will
11:00 be no discussions about Ukraine without
11:02 Ukraine and no discussions about Europe
11:05 So let us be clear about what Shenzhen
11:07 is and what it is not. It is a first
11:10 ever meeting of the three leaders, and
11:12 that alone makes it historic. It is not
11:14 a summit with a communiqué, and it is
11:16 not a negotiation with a deal at the end
11:19 American officials have said so
11:20 themselves in plain language. No
11:23 agreement is expected. The meeting is an
11:25 entry point, a starting point for longer
11:27 negotiations on nuclear weapons and a
11:30 chance to raise Iran with both leaders
11:33 Anyone who tells you next Thursday will
11:35 produce a treaty is telling you
11:36 something the White House itself has not
11:38 claimed. Here is what to watch on
11:41 Watch whether the bilateral meeting and
11:43 working lunch with Xi Jinping produces
11:45 anything on trade and whether the trade
11:49 Watch whether Ukraine comes up despite
11:50 the American insistence that it is not
11:52 on the agenda. And listen to what each
11:54 side says afterwards because Washington
11:57 and Moscow already described the same
11:59 meeting differently.
12:00 Watch the photograph and ask who is
12:02 missing from it. And watch Dublin and
12:04 Brussels the morning after because
12:06 Europe's reaction to whatever is said in
12:08 Shenzhen will tell you whether the team
12:09 named on Friday is a real negotiating
12:12 force or a list of names on a page.
12:14 The next round of Ukraine talks is
12:16 supposed to include that European team,
12:18 the institutions of the European Union
12:20 plus the United Kingdom, France,
12:22 Germany, Italy, and Poland. But no date,
12:25 venue, or representative has been named,
12:28 and Moscow has not agreed to an expanded
12:31 The envoys, Steve Wittkopf and Jared
12:33 Kushner, will keep shuttling. To recap
12:35 then, on Friday the 13th of November,
12:38 the White House confirmed that Donald
12:39 Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping
12:42 will hold the first ever three-way
12:44 meeting of their countries on Thursday
12:46 the 19th of November in Shenzhen.
12:49 The agenda is nuclear weapons and the
12:52 Ukraine, according to Washington, is not
12:55 on it, though Moscow says its president
12:58 No agreement is expected.
13:00 Europe, on the same day, named its team
13:03 for the Ukraine talks and asked
13:05 President Trump for no surprises.
13:07 The meeting has not happened yet.
13:09 Nothing has been decided,
13:11 but the room is set and the whole of
13:13 Europe will be watching.