NEWS.ВY: Аналитика · published 2 days ago ·
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CSTO against new threats: what Lukashenko warned about in Moscow
ОДКБ против новых угроз: о чем предупредил Лукашенко в Москве
What the site found
Pushes the agenda · agenda: NATO prepares war against Russia
Belief the Pravda network pushes: NATO, led by Germany, is preparing for war against Russia with military exercises near its borders.
A Belarusian state-style report on the CSTO summit presents NATO's border fortification and arms spending as preparation for aggression, while Russia and Belarus are said to plan nothing of the sort.
The video says · at 3:57 · quote checked against the transcript
“15 billion for border reinforcement is not defense; someone spending hundreds of billions on weapons intends to use them, otherwise the market simply doesn't work.”
15 billion for border reinforcement is not defense; someone spending hundreds of billions on weapons intends to use them, otherwise the market simply doesn't work.
The reporter goes beyond relaying Lukashenko and states in his own voice that NATO and Baltic-border fortification is offensive intent, while Russia and Belarus are portrayed as only defending, which matches Pravda's CSTO and 'fortification' stories.
The Pravda stories it echoes
Closest stories from the Pravda network, by meaning. Each links to the site’s comparison with trusted Lithuanian news.
28 days ago · On the Eurasian Charter, KSSO and 'counterbalance'
24 days ago · We address NATO concerns about military concentration near western borders - CSTO secretary general
25 days ago · PM: Article 5 of NATO should not be applied due to drone flights
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24 days ago · CSTO concerned about fortification construction in Poland and Baltic states — secretary general
Transcript (en, 262 lines)
0:01 Belarus welcomes efforts to resolve the
0:03 conflict in Ukraine and Russia's
0:05 flexible position in these negotiations
0:07 . Alexander Lukashenko stated this
0:08 yesterday at the CSTO summit in Moscow.
0:11 However, the issues on the
0:12 organization's agenda go far beyond the
0:14 Ukrainian war.
0:16 The future of our military bloc, hybrid
0:18 threats from Western countries, internal
0:21 contradictions, and the new face of
0:22 warfare, from drones to hackers.
0:25 How can the CSTO respond to the
0:27 challenges of the new era? Our observer
0:29 Alexey Volkov looked into the topic.
0:33 >> Moscow, November 11, Collective Security
0:35 Treaty Organization summit.
0:38 Formally, it’s a routine meeting; in
0:39 reality, it’s a meeting in a world that
0:42 has changed so much that the old rules
0:44 no longer work.
0:56 >> Thank you.
0:58 >> War has been ongoing in Ukraine for four
1:00 years. Iran has been bombed in the
1:01 Middle East. NATO has announced its
1:04 largest military spending in 30 years.
1:11 And within the CSTO itself, Armenia is
1:13 publicly announcing its intention to
1:15 withdraw from the organization.
1:17 >> What is the primary factor? It's not
1:19 about how we feel about this, but about
1:21 how Armenia—or rather, not so much the
1:23 people of Armenia, but its top
1:25 leadership—has begun to view the
1:27 country’s participation in integration
1:30 structures like the CSTO and the
1:32 Eurasian Union.
1:36 In reality, all these steps being taken
1:39 amount to passive participation—using
1:41 certain knowledge and advantages gained
1:43 from being part of these alliances for
1:45 selfish interests that, let’s say, do
1:48 not align with the goals of the
1:49 integration blocs.
1:55 Because we want to be strong, we want to
1:57 be united on political, economic, and
1:59 security issues.
2:01 >> The questions on the table are tough.
2:03 Can a military bloc created on the
2:05 fragments of the Soviet Union compete
2:07 with NATO, which has since doubled in
2:09 size?
2:10 And most importantly, what should be
2:12 done about threats that no longer come
2:14 with tanks, but with bots, hackers, and
2:16 algorithms?
2:19 >> The creation of the CSTO was, first and
2:22 foremost, aimed at halting the accession
2:24 of other former Soviet republics into
2:27 the NATO bloc.
2:31 To halt it as much as was possible.
2:34 But there wasn't enough time to cover,
2:36 for example, Eastern Europe or the
2:38 former Soviet Baltic republics.
2:45 The first topic of the summit is
2:47 external threats. And here, Alexander
2:49 Lukashenko said what people in Europe
2:51 prefer not to say out loud.
2:55 >> Although we are blamed, especially
2:57 Belarus and Russia, for preparing for
2:59 war by 2030 and being ready to fight
3:01 against NATO and the entire European
3:03 Union, there is nothing of the sort in
3:06 Belarus.
3:07 We have already spoken about this
3:09 several times, as has Russia.
3:13 On the contrary, we see significant
3:15 spending by Europeans on so-called
3:17 security.
3:19 The question is—from whom?
3:22 Regarding the engineering equipment of
3:24 borders and border territories, the
3:26 figure of 15 billion dollars has been
3:28 voiced; they are supposed to fortify the
3:30 border with us.
3:33 But the danger lies in the fact that
3:35 troops and special units are training
3:37 right at our borders.
3:41 And the danger is that the
3:42 militarization of Western countries
3:44 continues.
3:45 Hundreds of billions of dollars are
3:47 being spent on arms purchases.
3:50 It is clear that it is not us who are
3:51 planning to fight here, but whoever is
3:53 buying this weaponry.
3:55 >> The logic is simple.
3:57 15 billion for border reinforcement is
3:59 not defense; someone spending hundreds
4:02 of billions on weapons intends to use
4:04 them, otherwise the market simply
4:05 doesn't work.
4:10 But can the CSTO and NATO work together
4:12 , at least in the format of peacekeeping
4:14 ? This is not a rhetorical question.
4:16 Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa—there
4:19 are plenty of conflicts, and
4:20 theoretically, both structures could act
4:23 as guarantors of agreements, provided,
4:25 of course, that a dialogue begins.
4:28 >> There are military-political structures
4:30 —NATO, the CSTO—which, well, technically
4:33 could fulfill the role of both security
4:35 guarantors and, um,
4:40 act as a monitoring body for any
4:42 agreements.
4:45 Again, well, there are also third
4:47 countries that could be involved in the
4:49 interests of both the CSTO and NATO.
4:54 And they could be countries proposed by
4:56 NATO but agreed upon by the CSTO, and
4:58 vice versa.
5:00 >> The keyword is "if."
5:03 If NATO does not use peacekeeping as a
5:05 pretext for expansion, if both sides
5:07 agree on neutral observers in Ukraine,
5:09 for instance, if political will proves
5:11 stronger than ambition.
5:14 On our side, everything is in place. The
5:16 ball is in the court of the winds of
5:17 change, but will they take advantage of
5:19 it?
5:20 >> Look at how our Western neighbors have
5:22 expanded the concept of a hybrid threat
5:24 .
5:25 They have included illegal migration and
5:27 smuggling in it—things, by the way, in
5:30 which they themselves are primarily
5:32 involved.
5:33 Despite all the declarations about its
5:36 defensive nature, the pan-European
5:38 anti-hybrid system often operates beyond
5:40 the borders of the European Union,
5:42 conducting subversive activities in
5:44 third countries.
5:49 An example is the European Union's task
5:51 forces for countering hybrid threats,
5:53 deployed ahead of important election
5:56 campaigns in a number of post-Soviet
5:58 states, supposedly to counter foreign
6:00 interference.
6:03 It turns out quite interesting—
6:05 interference for the purpose of
6:06 countering interference.
6:08 >> And in such conditions of geopolitical
6:10 turbulence, it is important to sort
6:12 things out within the organization
6:13 itself, because Pashinyan's demarche is
6:15 a precedent and a fire that must be
6:17 extinguished immediately.
6:19 >> The CSTO is not some kind of
6:21 entertainment club where one can freely
6:23 enter, exit, and so on.
6:26 There are obligations there, and even
6:28 though they are spelled out in the
6:29 charter, they need to be toughened,
6:31 because, presumably, within the
6:33 framework of the CSTO, significant
6:35 assistance was provided to Armenia,
6:36 Kyrgyzstan, and so on. There must be
6:38 some mandatory obligations. I have said
6:41 that the CSTO needs to expand; there is
6:43 a format, one could create a "CSTO Plus
6:46 " format, and last year in Beijing a
6:48 document was signed on joint activities
6:51 , a roadmap for the CSTO, SCO, and CIS.
6:54 This is also very important for the CSTO
6:57 >> And now the main theme of the summit is
6:59 a new war, a war without tanks or
7:01 airplanes, but with hackers, bots,
7:03 algorithms, and artificial intelligence
7:06 >> It is not without reason that our
7:08 Western opponents say it is cheaper to
7:10 mobilize algorithms than armies.
7:12 That is a quote.
7:14 There is a fundamental shift in the
7:16 nature of military conflicts from
7:18 classical combat operations to
7:20 asymmetric, low-cost tools of influence
7:26 Targeted hacker attacks, bot armies, the
7:29 use of proxy hacker groups, and
7:30 generating fakes are incomparably
7:32 cheaper than strategic bombers and
7:34 cruise missiles, yet they can cause
7:37 serious damage.
7:41 All this is aimed at the internal
7:43 undermining of a state, which is no less
7:45 dangerous for people than military
7:47 aggression.
7:48 >> That is the formula for the new war. A
7:50 bomber costs billions; a bot farm costs
7:52 thousands. A cruise missile destroys
7:54 buildings; a deepfake destroys a
7:56 politician’s reputation. A tank is
7:58 visible on a satellite. A hacker attack
8:00 is not recognized until the last moment
8:02 , and our president urges us to
8:04 acknowledge that this is far from a
8:05 phantom threat.
8:06 >> The CSTO must not
8:09 >> remain on the sidelines of modern
8:11 technological processes, especially when
8:13 it comes to sovereignty and national
8:18 Artificial intelligence is in the same
8:20 category.
8:21 >> Just add a little political will. The
8:23 most precise diagnosis from Alexander
8:25 Lukashenko. It seems that this is
8:27 precisely the component the CSTO lacks
8:29 in order to have much greater influence
8:31 . Especially since the arms race is now
8:33 extending far beyond the borders of
8:34 Eurasia.
8:36 >> CSTO Deputy Secretary General Taalatbek
8:38 Masadykov said that we are currently
8:40 observing a threat of the militarization
8:42 of outer space.
8:44 In fact, the Americans were the first to
8:46 announce the deployment of weapons into
8:48 space just a month ago.
8:53 And considering artificial intelligence
8:55 technologies and the reduction of time
8:57 and measures for decision-making, a huge
8:59 threat looms over humanity.
9:04 >> Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko's
9:07 statement at the CSTO Collective
9:08 Security Council session can be viewed
9:11 not just as foreign policy declarations
9:13 , but as an attempt to offer the
9:15 organization a broader role—not only as
9:17 a military alliance, but as an element
9:19 of the emerging security system in
9:27 And it was right here that the key
9:29 phrasing was heard: that the CSTO could
9:31 become the military-political foundation
9:34 of a Eurasian charter of multipolarity
9:36 and diversity.
9:38 >> The CSTO today has, on one hand, unique
9:41 experience, infrastructure, and
9:42 political weight, but on the other,
9:44 internal contradictions and competition
9:47 with a bloc several times larger. Can
9:49 the organization become the foundation
9:51 for a new security architecture?
9:53 Undoubtedly, on one condition: that
9:55 every member of the CSTO knows they can
9:57 lean on the shoulder of their partners
9:59 and friends.
10:00 Judging by the results of the summit in
10:02 Moscow, our president understands this
10:04 like no one else. Alexey Volkov and
10:06 Dmitry Golovach, First Information.
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