0:00 Ukraine's renewed attacks on Russian oil
0:02 infrastructure have brought a less
0:04 visible part of the war into focus,
0:07 the connection between a machine and the
0:09 [music] network supporting it.
0:11 Today we are examining reports that
0:13 Ukrainian long-range drones are using
0:16 satellite terminals from the Israeli
0:20 [music] What is actually established?
0:22 What would an alternative connection
0:24 change and how far would it reduce
0:26 dependence on Starlink? Our reporting
0:29 cutoff is November 9th, 2026.
0:33 The latest reports describe attacks
0:35 continuing well beyond the incidents
0:36 examined in our previous video.
0:39 On November 7th, [music] the Kyiv
0:41 Independent reported a fire at the
0:43 Saratov oil refinery, citing a Ukrainian
0:46 monitoring channel. [music] The
0:47 newspaper said the details could not
0:49 immediately be verified. These reports
0:51 [music] provide the immediate context,
0:53 but they do not identify the
0:55 communications equipment used by any
0:57 particular aircraft. The Hi Sky story
1:00 has a more specific origin.
1:02 On November 8th, Militarnyi Aktuel
1:04 reported that Russian military channels
1:06 had identified Hi Sky terminals on
1:08 Ukrainian long-range drones.
1:11 It dated those claims to November
1:14 The article also attributed a response
1:16 to Ukrainian presidential advisor Serhii
1:18 Beskrestnov, known as Flash, who
1:21 declined to confirm or deny the
1:22 information. [music] That is a reported
1:24 identification by the opposing side
1:27 rather than public Ukrainian
1:28 confirmation of a complete operational
1:31 system. [music] The report does not
1:33 independently demonstrate that the
1:34 terminals caused the recent increase in
1:37 strike effectiveness. Hi Sky itself is a
1:39 real satellite communications company
1:41 with a history that predates this
1:43 dispute. The company says it was founded
1:45 in 2015. Its current website describes a
1:48 system combining terminals, a satellite
1:50 gateway, and network management with
1:52 applications across air, land, and sea.
1:55 It also advertises tailored defense
1:59 This establishes the supplier offers.
2:04 The manufacturer page is reviewed for
2:06 this video do not identify Ukraine as
2:08 the customer behind the reported
2:10 refinery attacks. Its Israeli origin
2:12 alone does not establish that Israel's
2:15 government directed the reported use. A
2:17 satellite terminal, a working
2:19 communications service, [music] and a
2:21 demonstrated battlefield effect are
2:23 three different things.
2:25 A terminal is the equipment at the
2:27 user's end of the connection. A service
2:29 also needs access to a network and
2:32 permission to use it. [music] A
2:33 battlefield effect needs evidence about
2:35 what changed in practice.
2:37 Identifying the hardware can support the
2:39 first claim. It cannot by itself prove
2:42 that an entire campaign has become more
2:44 effective or that another provider has
2:46 been fully replaced. There is another
2:48 distinction inside the name Starlink.
2:51 SpaceX presents Starlink as its consumer
2:53 and commercial service [music] while
2:55 describing Starshield as a
2:56 government-focused system built on
2:58 related technology. [music] The names
3:00 are connected, but they should not be
3:01 treated as interchangeable descriptions
3:03 of every contract and service
3:06 The Center for Strategic and
3:07 International Studies says
3:08 responsibility for October's temporary
3:10 restrictions remain disputed. [music]
3:13 That uncertainty matters when explaining
3:15 who could change a particular user's
3:16 access, but the disruption was real,
3:19 even though its attribution was
3:21 In an October 16th interview with the
3:23 Associated Press, Flash said Ukraine was
3:26 negotiating over restrictions affecting
3:28 its military satellite service.
3:30 On October 24th, Ukraine's Ministry of
3:33 Defense reported that operating speeds
3:35 [music] had been restored.
3:37 This is an important update. The current
3:40 high-sky discussion follows a temporary
3:42 disruption and restoration rather than
3:44 evidence that all Ukrainian access
3:46 [music] to SpaceX services is still
3:48 switched off. The geography also changes
3:53 In its November 2nd analysis, the Center
3:55 for Strategic and International Studies
3:57 stated that SpaceX does not allow
4:01 and that Ukraine uses other technologies
4:03 for strikes deep inside Russian
4:07 If the high sky reports confirmed,
4:09 describing them simply as a new
4:11 replacement for a previously
4:12 unrestricted Starlink connection would
4:17 The more useful question is, which
4:19 communications need an alternative
4:21 system serves [music]
4:23 and how much of the wider network it can
4:24 support. Bandwidth and latency describe
4:28 different qualities of a connection.
4:30 Bandwidth is how much information can be
4:34 Latency is the delay before that
4:35 information reaches its destination.
4:38 Think of sending a large file compared
4:40 with having a conversation.
4:43 One tests how much can be moved, while
4:45 the other also depends on timely
4:49 A link can be useful for one task
4:51 without matching the experience of
4:54 A supplier's headline speed, therefore,
4:56 cannot tell us whether two services are
4:58 interchangeable for every user. Orbital
5:01 design helps explain some of those
5:04 The European Space Agency describes low
5:06 orbit communications constellations as a
5:09 way to keep coverage available as
5:11 individual satellites move across the
5:14 [music] Geostationary satellites are
5:16 much farther away and appear fixed
5:18 relative to the ground.
5:20 That greater [music] distance adds
5:23 These are broad architectural
5:24 differences, not a performance test of
5:27 the equipment reportedly found in
5:28 Ukraine's drones. Alternatives are
5:30 already part of the wider satellite
5:34 Eutelsat describes its OneWeb system as
5:36 a constellation of more than 600 low
5:39 orbit satellites serving fixed and
5:41 mobile customers. [music]
5:43 That is an operating commercial network.
5:46 It does not mean that a user can
5:47 exchange one provider's equipment for
5:49 another and immediately retain the same
5:53 Availability, compatible terminals,
5:55 service agreements, and the needs of the
5:58 actual user still have to line up.
6:00 Ukraine is also pursuing a longer-term
6:03 On October 22nd, Nokia and ISI announced
6:07 a letter of intent with Ukraine's
6:08 Ministry of Defense to explore sovereign
6:11 satellite communications.
6:13 Their statement describes the ambition
6:15 of giving governments ownership and
6:16 control of satellites, ground
6:18 infrastructure, and terminals.
6:20 A letter of intent is a declared
6:22 direction for cooperation.
6:24 It is not evidence that a Ukrainian
6:26 replacement constellation has already
6:28 been deployed or is providing nationwide
6:31 wartime service. If Ukrainian forces
6:33 have obtained another usable satellite
6:35 link, the strategic benefit could be
6:37 greater freedom to choose how particular
6:39 communications needs are met.
6:41 That could make one interruption less
6:45 But supplier diversity and full
6:47 independence are different outcomes.
6:50 [music] An alternative may introduce
6:51 another operator, another contract, and
6:54 another set of support requirements.
6:57 The value comes from what remains
6:59 available when something goes wrong,
7:01 not simply from having a different
7:03 company name on the equipment.
7:05 Communications resilience means having
7:07 usable options when the main service is
7:11 Buying another terminal is only part of
7:16 People need to know the alternative
7:18 system, the equipment needs support,
7:20 [music] and access needs to remain
7:22 available when it is actually required.
7:25 A backup [music] that exists only on a
7:27 presentation does little for the person
7:30 waiting for a connection.
7:32 The meaningful test is whether an
7:33 essential task can continue through a
7:36 disruption with an acceptable level of
7:38 service. The wider development is clear
7:41 enough to take seriously.
7:43 Ukraine is seeking more control over
7:45 communications that have become
7:47 essential to its defense.
7:49 Official restoration notices and
7:51 announced sovereign communications
7:55 and reports of alternative terminals
7:57 describe [music] different parts of that
8:00 High Sky may prove to be one part of the
8:03 The measure of progress will be
8:04 dependable access to the connections
8:06 people need rather than the promise of a
8:09 single technology that changes