0:02 The negotiations may be about ending the
0:04 Ukraine war, but Moscow is putting
0:06 something much bigger on the table.
0:09 Russia is again demanding that NATO roll
0:11 back the military footprint it has built
0:14 across Eastern Europe since the late
0:16 1990s, potentially turning negotiations
0:19 over Ukraine into a fight over Europe's
0:21 entire postcold war security order.
0:24 According to the New York Times, Moscow
0:27 revived the demand during negotiations
0:29 in Abu Dhabi. Moscow wants NATO forces
0:33 pulled back to their 1997 positions,
0:36 effectively returning the alliance's
0:38 military posture to the period before
0:40 its major eastward expansion. The year
0:43 is important. [music] In 1997,
0:46 countries including Poland, Hungary, and
0:49 the Czech Republic had not yet joined
0:51 NATO. Neither had the Baltic states. The
0:54 alliance subsequently expanded deep into
0:57 what had once been Moscow's Soviet era
0:59 sphere of influence. Russia has opposed
1:02 that expansion for years and has
1:04 repeatedly argued that NATO military
1:07 infrastructure moving closer to its
1:08 borders created a direct security
1:11 threat. NATO governments reject that
1:14 argument, maintaining that sovereign
1:16 European states have the right to choose
1:18 their own alliances. But Moscow is now
1:21 trying to put that long-running dispute
1:23 into the terms of an eventual Ukraine
1:25 settlement, and the demands extend
1:28 beyond where NATO troops are stationed.
1:31 Moscow also wants a halt to further NATO
1:33 expansion that would directly affect
1:36 Ukraine's long-term relationship with
1:38 the alliance and potentially constrain
1:40 future enlargement elsewhere. Moscow is
1:44 also seeking an end to western weapons
1:46 supplies to Ukraine. that would strike
1:48 at one of Kev's principal military
1:51 lifelines and would significantly limit
1:53 the ability of European governments to
1:55 continue arming Ukraine after any
1:59 Russia's demands would therefore reach
2:01 well beyond Ukraine and into a debate
2:03 that European capitals have only
2:05 recently begun having among themselves.
2:08 Taken together, Moscow's position
2:11 suggests that it does not view a peace
2:13 settlement as simply a question of where
2:15 the Russia Ukraine front line eventually
2:17 stops. Moscow wants the negotiations to
2:20 address what it sees as the underlying
2:23 European security architecture that
2:25 produced the confrontation in the first
2:27 place. The timing adds another layer.
2:30 The demands have emerged ahead of next
2:32 week's expected meeting between Donald
2:34 Trump and Vladimir Putin in China on the
2:37 sidelines of the Apex summit. That
2:39 raises the possibility that the argument
2:41 over Ukraine could increasingly become
2:44 part of a much larger Trump Putin
2:46 discussion about European security. And
2:49 that is what makes the 1997 demand so
2:53 consequential. Russia is not simply
2:55 asking for territory, a ceasefire, or
2:58 limits on Ukraine's military. It is
3:01 reopening the question of how far NATO
3:03 should extend, where its forces should
3:05 operate, and what kind of military
3:08 protection Europe should be allowed to
3:09 build around itself. If those demands
3:12 remain on the table, then negotiating an
3:15 end to the Ukraine war will also mean
3:17 confronting a dispute that predates the
3:19 war itself. whether Europe's postcold
3:22 war security map is permanent or whether
3:25 Moscow can force parts of it back into
3:31 >> More important things like peace peace
3:33 in Ukraine and and the discussions about
3:36 uh Europe's and Europe's role in uh in
3:38 negotiations. I think uh we as Europe
3:43 have to grow some bigger balls because
3:46 we are bigger in size. We're bigger in
3:49 uh I mean in military might.
3:50 >> Uh I know that the Russians don't want
3:52 me but uh you know uh do we have a say
3:56 uh who is representing Russia? No, we
3:59 don't. And uh really I mean we have to
4:01 have a strong team and I'm ready to do
4:06 >> today. the importance is about AI,
4:09 discussions about AI, but uh uh there's
4:11 so much uh more important things like
4:13 peace peace in Ukraine and and the
4:16 discussions about uh Europe's and
4:18 Europe's role in uh in negotiations. I
4:20 think uh we as Europe have to grow some
4:25 bigger balls because we are bigger in
4:28 size. We're bigger in uh in I mean in
4:31 military might in all the economic
4:33 aspects. Look where is Russia? Russia is
4:35 uh not capable of even uh taking such a
4:39 such a in size smaller in in population
4:43 smaller uh power as Ukraine which is
4:45 showing a great great spirit and
4:47 fighting back fifth year and in
4:50 discussions Russia is raising uh the
4:53 points what what we have to accept sorry
4:56 that's the aggressor which is losing on
4:58 the front line uh we should be raising
5:00 our expectations what has to be done in
5:03 terms of Ukraine security. So I think
5:05 that's uh that's the position we should
5:06 be we should be stronger in in pointing
5:08 out that uh we are the guarantee for the
5:11 future security. It is our geographical
5:14 area what is uh in the future with
5:16 Ukraine and and Europe. So I think
5:18 that's that should be the position in
5:21 >> What do you say to those member states
5:23 who don't want you to be the one
5:26 Well, uh, all the member states actually
5:29 agreed that I'm the one who is
5:31 representing Europe in foreign and
5:33 security policy. So, um, I mean that was
5:36 in 2024 when it was clear um that, uh,
5:40 you know, this is going to be the case.
5:42 Uh, I know that the Russians don't want
5:44 me, but uh, you know, uh, do we have a
5:47 say uh, who is representing Russia? No,
5:50 we don't. And, uh, really, I mean, we
5:52 have to have a strong team. And I'm
5:55 ready to do this work with the foreign
5:56 ministers. Uh we meet every uh every
5:59 month. We have these formats already in
6:01 place and and frankly I think that
6:03 leaders have so much on their plate. uh
6:06 we should you really use the foreign
6:08 ministers and this format more to
6:10 actually you know um the way you
6:13 negotiate first you know you put
6:15 together the maximum demands then you
6:17 come together where are where is our
6:19 fallback position where we can
6:21 compromise and of course I'm bound uh
6:24 with what the member states say I mean
6:26 I'm not representing myself I'm
6:27 representing 27 like I have done already
6:31 two years what we saw um was Jared
6:34 Kushner finally ly admitting what I said
6:37 already one and a half years ago that
6:39 for any deal uh between uh Russia and
6:43 Ukraine uh for this implementation you
6:45 also need the Europeans. So that's why
6:47 the Europeans have to be at the table.
6:50 But I hope that uh we are just not at
6:52 the table but we are actually also uh
6:55 really uh um uh influencing the outcome
6:58 of these negotiations. And there the
7:01 most important is that we keep uh to our
7:04 agreement that first the ceasefire um
7:07 then you know peace agreement and then
7:09 any kind of other uh talks um and what
7:12 what comes after. stated that you
7:15 already have the mandate for doing this.
7:17 So logistically, um it's not to a
7:21 question to insult any work you've
7:22 already been doing, but this we talk
7:24 about peace process. When does Europe
7:27 start doing like Jared for sure and
7:30 start taking that level of initiative?
7:32 >> Uh well um well, we have institutions in
7:36 place. So we can't just send any person
7:39 that has no institutional role like the
7:41 Americans are sending. So uh clearly we
7:44 should not copy the same patterns and
7:46 that is why we are also discussing uh
7:49 what I've done uh so far is to prepare
7:52 the negotiations. So I mean the leaders
7:55 can decide whoever is representing but I
7:57 think it is important the substance uh
8:00 where this is uh really uh coming from
8:03 what is the mandate and and to work from
8:06 there. So I can do the preparation work.
8:08 Uh really I think it's important the
8:11 substance um to see clearly what is at
8:13 >> Why why do you think um the Russians
8:16 don't don't want you as a negotiator? Do
8:19 you think it's because you're from
8:22 >> They don't want anybody strong on the
8:24 other side because they want to push the
8:26 through their maximum demands like they
8:28 have always done because like the
8:30 foreign minister Kromokco said that
8:33 their tactics is very clear. I mean at
8:35 first you present threats and
8:36 ultimatums. You use force and then you
8:39 will just wait because there will always
8:41 be people in the west who will offer you
8:43 something you didn't have before
8:45 >> and most importantly uh we need peace in
8:48 Ukraine. Uh and any further funds should
8:51 primarily go toward Ukraine's
8:53 reconstruction. Uh we need a sort of uh
8:56 Marshall plan. So that's crucial and uh
9:00 I hope all the leaders will agree that
9:01 we need that peace because sometimes I
9:04 feel like uh like they've gotten used to
9:06 the war and that it's normal. To me it's
9:10 >> Mr. Prime Minister, were you able to
9:11 meet with the president of Ukraine in
9:13 person yesterday? Could you please tell
9:14 us how that meeting went and what
9:15 specific topics you two discussed
9:18 Yes, I have I've had a discussion with
9:21 President Zalinski uh for one regarding
9:24 the Ukrainian side's keen interest in
9:27 the L39NG training aircraft.
9:31 Um I just want to emphasize that uh this
9:35 is actually a sale by a private company
9:38 which uh Ukraine will pay for as usual.
9:41 Uh that means there's no money from our
9:46 uh the president is interested in
9:48 another uh 14 aircraft. So that was the
9:51 first piece of information plus they're
9:53 offering us a drone initiative.
9:57 Uh regarding our current uh military
9:59 affairs, I need to know if any formal
10:02 negotiations have started yet. I firmly
10:05 believe Ukrainians are the world's best
10:07 in drone warfare and advanced
10:09 technology. so we can receive a
10:12 comprehensive proposal on how this could
10:14 function in practice. Well, and then we
10:17 also talked about uh Carl Havlichek's uh
10:20 trip to Ukraine which actually ended uh
10:23 or was still ongoing at the time of my
10:25 meeting. There are various uh various
10:28 possibilities for cooperation. Of
10:30 course, uh the Ukrainian side is
10:32 interested in our turbines uh from the
10:35 company Shikod JS because they'll
10:37 obviously be rebuilding their energy
10:39 sector. uh regarding our meeting today
10:42 um um and the ongoing support for
10:44 Ukraine, uh Chancellor Schultz is
10:45 looking to tie the Ukraine support
10:46 package to this issue as well,
10:47 specifically to the MFM, which is the
10:49 long-term European budget. Uh what is
10:50 your personal perspective on the letter
10:51 that he recently sent?
10:53 >> We've been sitting up this morning
10:54 discussing it. There's a group of
10:58 they they're no longer called the frugal
11:00 ones, but those of us who simply think
11:02 uh a budget shouldn't cost too much. We
11:04 sat down this morning, including the
11:07 support for Ukraine.
11:09 I personally believe that what the
11:10 German chancellor is currently proposing
11:12 is absolutely and completely
11:13 unacceptable. A significant number of
11:15 these countries simply want to opt out
11:17 of the process as they like to put it.
11:18 In other words, they are looking to stay
11:20 entirely clear of um providing any
11:22 financial support for Ukraine. That is a
11:24 completely unacceptable stance to take,
11:26 not least because those very same
11:28 countries are often net recipients of
11:29 the European Union budget as a whole. So
11:32 Ukraine support within the framework of
11:34 all budget issues is absolutely crucial
11:36 for Germany, but also for us. I sense
11:38 there's broad agreement on on our side
11:42 >> Do you not see any risk that this might
11:43 turn into a dangerous game? I mean, if
11:45 these budget negotiations continue to
11:47 drag on, it implies that the support for
11:49 Ukraine will be further delayed.
11:51 >> Uh there are many risks in this right
11:54 now. There are many risks in this, but
11:56 clearly support for Ukraine is of an
11:58 almost existential nature for for for
12:01 all of Europe. It's important to be able
12:03 to make decisions, but then those
12:05 decisions must also include those kinds
12:09 Entering into a budget decision now that
12:11 involves increases for so many other
12:13 things, very large increases in spending
12:15 for those of us who are already net
12:17 contributors is completely unacceptable.
12:19 And that's why we together with Germany
12:21 have put our foot down firmly. Those
12:23 countries that now want to avoid paying
12:25 for Ukraine, we won't accept that. Um,
12:28 regarding the question of who is going
12:30 to represent Europe, I feel that the
12:31 whole discussion is still slightly
12:34 it is quite uh overstated honestly to
12:36 protect the interests of Europe is quite
12:38 obviously a vital matter. Some of these
12:41 are strictly matters of uh European
12:44 Union interest financing or the future
12:47 membership of Ukraine should be
12:49 represented by EU institutions.
12:52 Naturally, some of these discussions
12:54 must include major nations like France
12:57 and Germany. I also appreciate the
13:00 active participation of both Italy and
13:04 But uh um you must not forget that the
13:06 European Union is important but Europe
13:07 is significantly larger than the EU. So
13:10 so UK at least needs to be included
13:13 also. So I for me this E3 format has
13:16 been pretty uncomplicated. But E5 is
13:19 also very kind of legitimate to me plus
13:22 the EU institutions. So I I'm quite
13:25 flexible on that. I think what we
13:27 actually say is more important than the
13:29 exact configuration of the people in the