0:00 Well, Russian President Vladimir Putin
0:02 has drawn another red line in efforts to
0:04 end the war in Ukraine. This revives
0:07 Moscow's long-standing demand that NATO
0:10 roll back its military presence in
0:12 Eastern Europe as a condition for a
0:15 potential peace agreement. The renewed
0:17 demand raises new doubts about the
0:19 prospects for a negotiated settlement.
0:22 It suggests that Moscow is unwilling to
0:25 limit discussions to the future of
0:27 occupied Ukrainian territory.
0:30 Russia wants Ukraine to stay out of NATO
0:32 and is demanding that the alliance
0:34 reduce its military presence in Eastern
0:36 Europe. Meanwhile, Moscow also says that
0:39 NATO's expansion threatens its security
0:42 and insists that its concerns must be
0:45 addressed in any peace deal.
0:48 However, Ukraine and its Western allies
0:51 reject Russia's demand to dictate their
0:53 security choices. Ukrainian President
0:55 Rodomir Zalinski has revealed the United
0:58 States has raised the possibility of
1:01 Ukraine surrendering the Donbas region
1:03 to Russia in exchange for NATO
1:07 Meanwhile, Zalinski adds that his visits
1:10 to Denmark and Ireland have delivered
1:13 fresh military and financial support for
1:15 Ukraine as the country prepares for
1:17 another difficult winter. this after he
1:20 warned that Russia is putting all its
1:22 resources into its military campaign
1:24 against Ukraine this winter. In a
1:27 statement, he announced a $711 million
1:30 defense package and $22 million in
1:34 energy assistance from Denmark.
1:37 Meanwhile, Russia continues to put
1:39 military pressure on Ukraine, even using
1:41 its larger forces, artillery, and
1:44 missiles to weaken Ukrainian defenses
1:46 and damage critical infrastructure.
1:49 Ukraine however continues to fight back
1:51 with drones, long range attacks and
1:54 support from western countries. And
1:57 despite facing heavy pressure, it has
1:59 not given up its resistance.
2:02 So where is the war heading? Three
2:05 possibilities are emerging. First, the
2:07 war could continue with Russia attacking
2:09 and Ukraine defending itself with drones
2:12 and Western support. Second, the rising
2:15 cost of the war could push both sides
2:17 towards a ceasefire, but disagreements
2:20 over territory could block a peace deal.
2:22 And third, if talks fail, the fighting
2:25 could intensify and tensions between
2:27 Russia and NATO could rise even further.
2:33 For more on this, joining us live from
2:34 Washington DC is Dr. Charles Cupchin,
2:37 senior fellow at the Council on Foreign
2:39 Relations. Welcome again to Weon Dr.
2:41 Cupchin. Putin wants NATO back to its
2:44 1997 footprint before countries like
2:47 Poland and the Baltics joined. Wouldn't
2:50 this essentially be a cold war style
2:52 Europe where Moscow gets a say over its
2:55 neighbors? Even using the war to force a
2:58 roll back. Is this an effective
3:02 Well, I I think you're right that Putin
3:04 has in mind a return to the security
3:07 order that existed during the Cold War
3:10 with a Russian sphere of influence and
3:12 an alliance on one side and NATO on the
3:15 other side. I think it's it it's quite
3:18 depressing that after years of war, now
3:21 we're finally back at the negotiating
3:23 table. The Russians are putting out a
3:25 set of terms that are complete
3:27 non-starters. NATO is not going to
3:30 withdraw from Eastern Europe. We're not
3:33 going to see uh the the retreat of the
3:36 of the order that emerged after the end
3:38 of the of the Cold War. So, the Russians
3:41 are making demands here that are going
3:43 nowhere. And I think one can only
3:46 conclude that their strategy here is to
3:49 continue pounding Ukraine to hit them as
3:51 hard as possible during the winter and
3:54 to continue trying to break the country
3:58 >> Indeed, Putin is also still reading from
4:01 his 2022 script, Dr. Cupchin, because he
4:04 had similar demands before the invasion
4:06 of Ukraine. So why should the world
4:08 trust them as a peace offer now?
4:11 >> Well, the world shouldn't trust them. We
4:13 have no reason to believe that after
4:16 several years of negotiations, beginning
4:19 when Trump came back to office, he had
4:22 on a summit with Putin in Alaska, we
4:24 have yet no reason to believe that
4:26 they're negotiating in good faith. The
4:29 only ray of light here is that the
4:32 Russians are not in good shape here. The
4:35 Ukrainians are now hitting them in
4:37 Russia. There are supply shortages,
4:40 gasoline, commodities. The Russians are
4:43 losing about 35,000 soldiers per month,
4:46 but they're not gaining any territory.
4:49 Now you have in the midterms the
4:51 Democrats getting stronger. They're more
4:55 >> So Putin is looking at a situation which
4:57 over the longer run is unsustainable.
5:00 But he continues to make demands that I
5:03 think he knows full well neither Ukraine
5:06 nor Europeans nor even Mr. Trump are
5:10 going to be able to accept.
5:12 >> Right. As you speak of Trump, Dr.
5:14 Cupchin, his envoys are exploring
5:16 economic incentives. But Putin does not
5:19 seem to agree. He still wants NATO's
5:21 retreat and end to western arms for
5:23 Ukraine. He also wants restrictions on
5:25 Kev's future. A long list of demands
5:28 right there. And there are now reports
5:29 stating that Ukraine is also being asked
5:31 to give up Donbas. But Ukraine gives up
5:34 land, NATO gives up ground. With so many
5:37 entangled parties here, who in your
5:40 assessment might blink first?
5:43 >> Well, I think in the end of the day, the
5:45 Russians are not going to get what they
5:48 want. And that's simply because if you
5:50 look at the total GDP, the total
5:53 capability, the military strength of
5:55 Ukraine plus NATO, Russia will get an
5:59 end to this war only when it puts on the
6:02 table a proposal that accept is
6:04 acceptable to the Ukrainians and their
6:07 partners. And in some ways, one has to
6:10 come away from the Abu Dhabi meeting and
6:12 now there's a non-paper circulating with
6:15 all these Russian demands just assuming
6:17 that that Russia is living with
6:19 delusions. And I guess we're just going
6:22 to have to wait to see more pain in
6:25 Russia, more Russian soldiers killed,
6:28 more economic and diplomatic isolation
6:31 before we get to something that
6:33 resembles a proposal that could lead to
6:38 >> Of course, it's a grave reality right
6:40 there that soldiers are losing their
6:41 lives. And meanwhile, there's also
6:43 European role here, Dr. Cupchin. Russia
6:46 wants Britain and France to rule out
6:48 even using their nuclear weapons to
6:50 protect other European countries. But
6:52 why would they do it? What would stop
6:54 Russia from exploiting that weakness
6:56 later? How do you see Europe's role in
7:01 >> Well, when Trump came into office in his
7:03 second term, he did back away from
7:05 providing both military aid and economic
7:08 aid to Ukraine. Europe has stepped up.
7:11 Europe has filled the gap. And as a
7:13 consequence, if there is a deal here, it
7:16 has to be one that's acceptable to NATO,
7:19 to European allies, and to Ukraine. And
7:23 there's a separate discussion that
7:24 you're mentioning here about what about
7:27 extending the nuclear deterrent of
7:30 Britain and France, to Germany, to
7:31 Poland, to others. That's a conversation
7:34 that's occurring because of concern
7:37 about the direction of American foreign
7:39 policy. Is the United States going to
7:41 stay put as a member of NATO as a
7:43 country that extends its guarantee to
7:46 European allies? I think the answer to
7:49 that is yes, but given the way that
7:52 Trump has handled NATO, there is there
7:54 is uncertainty here. One other quick
7:56 point, there is a summit coming up next
7:59 week between Trump and she and Putin. I
8:03 think there's an outside chance here
8:05 that Trump can try to get the Chinese
8:07 leader to put pressure on Ukraine to
8:10 back off these maximalist demands. I'm
8:13 not hoping hopeful that that will
8:15 happen, but let's let's see if Trump can
8:18 somehow get China to put more pressure
8:22 >> Right? Not just one maximalist demand
8:24 right there. It's a list of it. A
8:26 territorial deal, a NATO concession, or
8:28 a change in the balance of power. What
8:30 does Putin want? That has been the
8:32 question from a long time. Thank you so
8:34 much again, professor, for your time and
8:38 >> My pleasure. Bye-bye.